5/5 NL at foxwoods, big bluff on river

[mgsimpleton]

Stack sizes:
Hero ($1700)
Villain ($2100)
Fish (unimportant)

Reads: Fish is, well, a fish. Villain is a player with whom i've tangled on occasion. Every time i bet big I have a better hand than him, I have never lost a showdown to him. He is a tight player who will not bet huge without a huge hand, but I have never actually witnessed him make a giant laydown. I assume he is capable of doing so.


Hero is MP3 w/ K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Fish raises from SB to 20 preflop, 6 to the flop.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pot is 120. Fish checks, villain checks, hero bets $75. Fish and villain both call.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pot is 350. Fish checks, villain checks, Hero bets $200. Fish folds, villain raises to $450. Hero calls.

River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pot is $1250. Villain bets $300. Hero raises to $1150 and is all-In.

Thoughts?

[aggie]

Hmmmm, you managed to get 340 BB's in there with 1 pair. Seems like something i would do. I don't like it.

[mgsimpleton]

well you realize that when most of the BB's go in, i realize i am toast, right? i called the turn for flush draw because i didn't think he had the nut flush, then board paired and i knew he was tight so i try to push him off.

thoughts of the play AS A BLUFF?

[topout]

You are risking $1150 to win $1550. So you have to get him out 43% of the time. You know better than us if that's possible. Your small flop bet with 2 hearts showing is fishy but certainly could be 45 or 45.
He basically min-raised you on the turn. If he's a good player that means he has the nut flush and thinks you have a small flush or less than a set. Your call likely changed his opinion.
I love the move against a good player. Most 5/5 players are not good, though.

topout

Edit: Remember even if he called that doesn't mean it was the wrong play. He has to fold a little less than 1/2 the time to make this +EV.

[Chaostracize]

Preflop: With 340 BBs and a good read on the table, you can play this hand. Fine call.

Flop: Bet looks ok. I'd bet more around 100-120.

Turn: The draw got there and you're in position. No river card is going to scare you (Besides maybe 2 of the offsuit aces). You have a good, showdownable hand. You have a draw to the second nut. Move? Check behind and keep the pot small, or see if you can hit another heart. There is not doubt one of these two is trying to be tricky and planning to checkraise you. The 3 completes 76 and the heart completes the flush. What do you think they were calling on the flop with? The biggest mistake happened here on the turn, IMO. As it played out I think you need to fold to his turn check-raise. You said he's tight so the plan is to fold when he shows aggression in the middle of a hand not to play him with something mediocre like TPGK on a made hand board. You are getting 4-1 on your call to see a river, but there's an extremely high chance you're drawing to either 7 outs or zero. Don't get carried away, ditch your hand now.

River: Interesting play. You would need a good read to do this. It's clear you're beat so the 5-1 odds are somewhat irrelevant. The problem with raising is you're offering villain 850-2700, just over 3-1 on his call. If you've been playing extremely, extremely tight and shown down only monsters when playing with this kind of aggression and you know villain is watching, this might not be a horrible play. But you have to remember what good odds you're offering him to call, and in this case if he had a hand on the turn, I think he's going to "pay you off on the river" making this a clear fold, IMO again.

What do the rest of you think?

[Chaostracize]

I don't think he's folding that often getting 3-1.

[aggie]

The is the post that i wanted to write, but was too lazy. I also could not have written it as well.

[Marginilizer]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's folding that often getting 3-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. For villian to fold, he would have to believe you set up/two paired on the flop or turned the nut flush. KK wouldn't have smooth called $20 pre flop and quad 5s wouldn't make such a large bet on the river. Pocket 4s are a possibility, but I think you would have bet harder on the flop. K 4 and K 5 are unlikely if he views you as a tight player. Playing 4 5 for a raise is also unlikely, but I have done it before. There's no way you have pocket 3s. Overall, it would be hard putting you on a full house. If you hit nut flush on the turn, the move would have been to push all-in when he reraised you. Now the only question is how good is HIS flush? If he's got baby flush, maybe he lays it down. Jack high or better, you're getting called.

[Chaostracize]

Given the way hero played I think QQ, 44 and A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are all very real possibilities.

[LuvDemNutz]

I check behind on the turn.

As you played it, I like the river raise a lot. I think Villain's smallish river bet is designed to let him get away from the hand if you raise him.