5/5 NL at foxwoods, big bluff on river

[Marginilizer]

Meant to write QQ on that last post. Still think he's getting called by Jack high flush or better.

[Chr]

I really like your riverplay.

The play of the hand could very easy be QQ, 55 or 44 in your hand.

The tiny bet from villain on the river looks like he didn't really like the board paired. He's making a valuebet with an oppertunity to fold. If he also remembers you always win at showdown, he will hate this all-in. I think there's a good chance he will fold a small flush.

btw, I don't like your pf call.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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I have never actually witnessed him make a giant laydown.


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You're giving this guy almost 3:1 on a call and you think he's going to fold because the board paired? What's he been putting you on-middle pair? I also doubt you play a set this way, so he probably wouldn't even lay down AK. Obviously these situations are read-dependend, but based on the fact he has never made a laydown in front of you, I would only make this bet if I thought he could play KJ or K10 like this and view it as a value bet.

[turnipmonster]

how does villian's river bet size factor into whatever folding equity we have? in other words, would we rather he checked, bet 300, or bet more (clearly the worst time to attempt a bluff)?

my opinion is that if we were forced to pick a time to bluff out of those 3 scenarios, I would rather he bet 300 than checked or bet more.

--turnipmonster

[Chr]

Agreed. A check would often be designed for check-call and a bigger bet will make it impossible to kick him off.

[Chaostracize]

I completely agree which is precisely the reason that I think bluffing here with these stacks is terrible.

[LuvDemNutz]

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I completely agree which is precisely the reason that I think bluffing here with these stacks is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you agree, as it seems that out of the 3 scenarios presented, this would be the best time to attempt a bluff.

[Chaostracize]

Ok. My point is that since this would be the BEST time bluff, and since even that is a bad time to bluff, that bluffing should be discarded as an option by the end of the hand. Does that make more sense?

EDIT: Eh... I mean that if bluffing is your only option, this is how you'd want it to go down. But bluffing here is still a bad play.

[thabadguy]

I luv the bluff here, i think the small river bet is a small flush, capable of folding and if you have only shown down "monstahs" then he is folding.

[Chaostracize]

Did you read my other post explaining why I think this river bluff is bad?