Call or fold TPTK here

[Sponger15SB]

No reads. Me and Villian have $25

UTG+1 in $25nl with AQo, I raise to $2, 1 caller.

Flop is Qx T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $4, Opponent goes all in.

[Wayfare]

Top two vs. flush draw is a good place to be.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Top two vs. flush draw is a good place to be.

[/ QUOTE ]


whoops....messed the board up, i only had TPTK and not two two.

fixing now

theres no way in hell i fold top two there.

[TrailofTears]

I fold, but don't really like it. Seems like a really strong bet, so maybe it is KQ or a draw, but there are a lot of draws out there so if he has both types or a piece of the flop plus a draw, you might be in trouble. Remember this for later when you bust him though.

- ToT

[JohnG]

I voted call. If he had raised with more to bet, or his allin raise had been more than it was, then I would have probably folded.

[tylerg]

[ QUOTE ]
I voted call. If he had raised with more to bet, or his allin raise had been more than it was, then I would have probably folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

AT PARTY 25 NL this is an impossible fold in my opinon...FOR EVERY TIME HE HAS THE SET OR 2 PAIR THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIMES WHEN YOU HAVE HIM BEAT...at party 25 nl many players would min-raise with anything that beats you so i think you have to call NO QUESTION I WOULD.

[tylerg]

Villain = QJ? THATS THE BEST HAND I THINK IS POSSIBLE...anything better would have min-raised in most cases...

[nickey009]

Do you have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? If you don't then he probably has it and I'm thinking he's got a flush draw and top pair.

[DrPublo]

Wow...

Not that I mean to take issue with the "It's Party Poker so automatically the opponent is a moron at least 20% of the time" mantra, but if you routinely go to the felt with TPTK on a coordinated board like this you will lose in the long term. You will lose every cent you have.

There are many problems with calling an all in here. First, many of the hands that you're ahead of have significant redraws against you here. Example:

pokenum -h ac qs - qh jd -- qc th 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qc Th 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 547 55.25 420 42.42 23 2.32 0.564
Jd Qh 420 42.42 547 55.25 23 2.32 0.436

Consider a hand like QJ (with or without hearts) or Ah Jh. Even QK, which you have dominated, has a gutshot. Also (and I'll refer back to your mantra here) because it's Party, hands like QT Q9 and 9T are not out of the question for this opponent. All these hands also put you in very bad shape. Needless to say if he has a set or KJ you're almost dead.

In fact, I can' think of a hand that a reasonable player will play back at you with here that you beat, or at least beat well enough to play for your stack. And even if your opponent is full of it some percentage of the time, the rest of the time you're in bad shape.

There are times to go broke with TPTK, especially for only 50BB. But those times are on entirely uncoordinated boards. Maybe like K82r or Q95 or something; in those cases your opponenet either has the set and you're dead or he doesnt, and its combinatorily much much likely that he doesnt. But the board here is too coordinated to go broke.

The Doc

[SA125]

Against a set it's a nightmare. I'd feel a lot better if the hearts were smaller. On Party the $25NL BB is .50 Any PP will call your 4x BB raise for this specific TP spot.

I don't like the raise. I may be wrong but I like Ciaffone here. Big unsuited's aren't that strong when playing for your stack. Playing for your stack with TPTK isn't horrible, but it's far from great. If he's got a set, you're dead. If he's on a fl draw, he's not in that bad a shape. If he's just bad, like many of the $25NL Party players are, his KJ is sitting real pretty.

Is folding here weak tight? I'm not so sure.