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#11
08-23-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
[ QUOTE ]
So to recap on the bubble, raising to 3bb generally goes out the window and its a case of pushing or folding pf and that hands such as A5, A6 etc are good for pushing and that when we push, we are mainly trying to pick up the blinds here? Is that right? [/ QUOTE ] Just to clarify, the fact that you are on the bubble isn't the reason you should be pushing instead of raising. You should be pushing because of your stack size in relation to the blinds. If you make a 3 BB raise with only 8 BBs then you are pot comitted pre flop so you might as well just push. If the blinds were smaller or if you had more chips raising is fine even if you are on the bubble. Correct, the goal is to pick up the blinds when they are large in relation to your stack size. 
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#12
08-23-2005, 09:37 PM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
You are right, the gap is most significant at the bubble. You should push with many many hands but call with only very very good hands if the amount you call is a significant amount of your chips (>50%).
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#13
08-24-2005, 04:39 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
That's very general, and not always true:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter Hero (t2340) UTG (t1100) Button (t3070) SB (t1490) Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1100 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t800. Flop: (t2350) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Turn: (t2350) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: (t2350) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t2350 Not calling here would have been terrible (do you see why, etc)
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#14
08-24-2005, 05:06 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
If you win this hand you have a much higher precentage to finish first. If you fold you will be much closer to bubbling out. I donīt know the exact math, but i guess it would be quite a lot more +$EV to call here.
Besides UTG is pushing a wide range of hands here, since heīll have the BB next hand. Interesting hand, Tigerite. Please slap me in my face if my logic is way off.
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#15
08-24-2005, 05:45 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
Well, you're getting 2:1, it's a small stack...
But I think his range is probably top 50-60%, and I don't know if 69o is good enough to call that, even getting odds. Losing this really cripples your FE, too. I think folding this is fine, but calling should be ok, given the odds and the other stack. The A6 fold you posted, folding against shortstack in the BB, however, was terrible. You were getting 2.5:1 or better when Villain could have been pushing any hand. I would have autocalled Villain's raise with any hand, let alone A6. With what it is almost assuredly the best hand getting huge odds against a shortstack Villain, you need to call.
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#17
08-24-2005, 06:28 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
Call and lose
UTG (t3070) Button (t1340) Hero (t1240) BB (t2350) Call and win Button (t1340) Hero (t3590) BB (t3070) Fold UTG (t3070) Button (t1340) Hero (t2040) BB (t1550)
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#18
08-24-2005, 07:22 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
[ QUOTE ]
Call and lose UTG (t3070) Button (t1340) Hero (t1240) BB (t2350) Call and win Button (t1340) Hero (t3590) BB (t3070) Fold UTG (t3070) Button (t1340) Hero (t2040) BB (t1550) [/ QUOTE ] I guess you hate being second stack on the bubble... (if the utg and button are passive I see your point, you could call, lose, and go on stealing with junk from sb)
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#19
08-24-2005, 07:45 AM
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Re: If someone could analyse my bubble play i\'d be eternally grateful.
It's not so much that. I just believe this is a +$EV call by ICM or whatever else you wish to use to calculate it. I'm far, far from dead if I lose, still have FE over two stacks at least. Unless he has 99+ I have at least one live out and probably two. My odds are pretty much there even to call as a 40/60 and it's possible I'm even a 45/55 if he has 22-55. Whereas of course winning gives me a huge advantage 3-handed and I'll hardly ever go into HU as a chip dog.
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#20
08-24-2005, 08:08 AM
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icm
ok, I see your point about the big advantage when you win.
I did the calcs though and they are negative. Only if villain pushes 85% or more does it become a +$EV move. FWIW, if villain pushes 50% of his hands it is a -0.9% call (and hero only wins the hand 37% of the time - I guess 96o really suks...)
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