this middle worth it?

[macdafunk]

LIONS PK -113
BEARS +3 -120

[tech]

I would have to do the calculations to be sure, but at first glance I would say no. Middling across 1 and 2 sucks, so your best shot is a push on the 3. At -120 and -113, that doesn't seem like enough. Again though, the sure way to tell is just to look up the percentages for each number and do the calculation.

[DeucesUp]

This looks like a nice opportunity to me, where did you find these lines?

Rough estimate:
Bet $113 Lions PK
Bet $120 Bears +3

43% Lions win by >3 -- Lose $20 EV=-$8.60
43% Bears win -- Lose $13 EV=-$5.59
10% Lions win by 3 -- Win $100 EV=$10
4% Lions win by 1 or 2 -- Win $200 EV=$8

Net $3.81 per $233 wagered


You can tweak the percentages slightly if you want but these should be pretty close. If anything they're a little conservative, I'd actually put the Lions by 1 or 2 at 4.5-5%. You may also change the bet amounts slightly to equalize the risk, I chose these to make the math easier and it won't change the results much.

[CieloAzor]

Now where would a guy find percentages like that? Is there a table somewhere that I should know about?

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Now where would a guy find percentages like that? Is there a table somewhere that I should know about?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is one in Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting. I know that might not help you now. But, you should read the book anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

craig