River Value Bet

[Xhad]

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If you always bet winners and you're playing against people who catch on, you're forcing them to play tighter. How does river value betting at that point become profitable? Those people will probably start folding more.

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Opponent: "Hm, that guy just checked an obvious winner. Therefore, I should call him when he bets!"

Opponent: "Hm, that guy just checked an obvious winner. Maybe he only bets the nuts? I'll be careful about calling him with weak hands."

Which one makes more sense?