Slow play set on a dangerous flop?

[DPCondit]

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How am I to come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be raised in the second round of a 33? Generally, players at 33's understand the value of basic aggressiveness. I would contend (though I have no data to support this contention, it's just a guess) that something in the vicinity of 60% of preflops are raised at a 33. So...because there have been 2 folds in front of our Hero and 2 players have been eliminated, let's assume there is only a 50% likelihood that this pot will be raised PF. Let's further assume that he makes a call like the one described in the OP 100 times.


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It depends on the texture of the game, and how opponents are reacting to you specifically. In many game textures, I wouldn't consider it, but sometimes the tables can be fairly passive.

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50 of those times, there will be a preflop raise and Hero will fold, leaving his t30 on the table (Net: -t1500)


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Is there a 50% chance? Depends on the table, some will be 75%, some will be 25%. One size does not fit all. Further, if they only minraise, I'm calling, any more would depend on the opponent. Some opponents define their hands pretty well with their raises, and if you have a good idea what they have, you can have a better idea if the flop hits them. Calling a raise is very opponent, and raise size dependent.

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Of the 50 times he sees a flop, he will not flop a set 88.2% of the time, or 44 of those times...we'll assume Hero will not play poorly on any of those flops and will simply fold his small pair when he doesn't flop a set (Net: -t1320)


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That is your assumption, not mine. I disagree. Most of the time your opponents are on big cards, and if it comes small you are probably ahead. Of course many times you will have to fold when you miss your set, but not every time, that is playing way too scared.