Thoughts on this hand posted in a blog

[TheRapist99]

This hand was posted in a blog I read (suckout.blogspot.com) along with the guy's thought process. This is interesting, and this guy has been at it a lot longer than me, but his play confuses me a little bit and talking about it here would be helpful-

Hero has 88

Villain raises.

His VPIP is 68%, which is ridiculous for even 6 max. Let's see how much you like those cards, dawg.

Hero 3 bets. Everyone else folds. Villain calls.

OK, so far this makes sense to me..

Flop is 4h 7h 10c. Villain bets.

He didn't cap it pre-flop so he's probably playing overcards. I don't like the flush draw but I like that flop a lot.

Hero raises. Villain 3-bets.

Hmm. Don't like the 3 bet much but I can't fold here, as it's a decent sized pot and he's uber LAGGY, having just played a few K high hands exactly like this. I definitely need to slow down, though, and just call down to the river, unless the turn or river help me.

OK, still sounds good and we're on the same page here.

Hero calls. Turn is the 10d. Villain bets.

Sweet. Other than an 8, that's the best card I could hope for, as the odds just improved dramatically that's playing overcards, and doesn't in fact have a 10. If he does have a 10, so be it, he'll get more of my money.

Hero raises. Villain calls.

Yikes! This is a ballsy raise after that flop 3-bet and I don't think I could come up with this yet.

River is Js. Villain checks.

Just check it down. Given the strength you've shown, he's not going to call with overcards, now that he's lost the momentum. Anything else he calls with beats you.

Looks good to me.

Hero checks. Villain shows AKs. Hero wins.

After looking at this again, I like that turn thought process a lot. I'm beating 1/2 6m at a decent clip, but I think makin more thinking aggro moves like that would really be good for my game. Or is it too spewy?!

Thoughts?

[MisterKing]

What is villain's PFR%? This is much more important than VP$IP, since that number includes calls. We want to know his raising standards... a 68/1/1 is a very different animal than a 68/50/5. I'd threebet the latter, and probably just call the former.

[sy_or_bust]

This is pretty standard against a loose-aggressive player.

[MisterKing]

We also would likely want to know villain's went to SD% and won at SD% before making that "ballsy" turn raise. At a minimum, they're helpful guides. If he's seeing a ton of showdowns, and losing the vast majority, that favors a turn raise. If he's seldom seeing SD's, and winning most, that favors a call/call line.

Personally, I think if hero can summon the will to raise the turn then he can bet the river for value here, even though paint fell. Lots of worse hands are calling (pp lower than 88, ui overcards, missed heart frush). Hero can then fold to a raise, assuming we know bluff raises aren't a regular part of villain's routine. The more cautious way ahead/way behind line would be to call any time when its bet to you and bet any time its checked to you, assuming no obvious trouble cards hit (aces and kings principally).

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Sweet. Other than an 8, that's the best card I could hope for, as the odds just improved dramatically that's playing overcards, and doesn't in fact have a 10. If he does have a 10, so be it, he'll get more of my money.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have this thought all the time.

One difference between running bad and running good is how often the guy just made trips instead of having his no-pair exposed by the board.

Guy.

[wheelz]

Meh I still bet the river

[baronzeus]

Bet river, value betting is fun, and I think AK-AQ calls? . I definitely overdo it sometimes though.

Edit: it's close.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
This is pretty standard against a loose-aggressive player.

[/ QUOTE ]