misplayed from the BB

PSW · #1 11-09-2005, 02:20 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG is 85/10/.44 over about 28 hands and is the same player as the one in my other post today.
MP3 is 9.66/5/1.5 over 50 hands and isn't the same player.

This hand played out 4 hands after my other hand I posted in which I bet and folded when it was 3 back to me. I think that is why I 3-bet it. I'm pretty sure that was spewing.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP3 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Mistake number one.

Turn: (7.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

Mistake number two. I think I should have reraised and called a cap.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

I think this is an interesting hand reading exercise. UTG clearly has a Q. What is his other card? A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] probably would have raised PF but K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] probably wouldn't have. It could also be just about any other card including an 8, 3 or 7. Should I have reraised the river?

psw

uw_madtown · #2 11-09-2005, 02:28 PM

Fold the flop. You know why.

Bet-calling the river is fine. You don't have enough hands on the guy for his AF to have even remotely converged, but you shouldn't be 3-betting pretty much anyone here. Getting capped sucks. I mean, it IS a paired board and you have the third flush.

PSW · #3 11-09-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop. You know why.

Bet-calling the river is fine. You don't have enough hands on the guy for his AF to have even remotely converged, but you shouldn't be 3-betting pretty much anyone here. Getting capped sucks. I mean, it IS a paired board and you have the third flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's exactly what my thinking was during the game. Then afterwards I continued to think about it. Naturally, I am trying to add more handreading to my game to find more value ect. You are right though. Not enough hands to risk two more big bets.

psw

#4 11-09-2005, 03:54 PM

I don't like the preflop 3-bet. I lead that flop. You want to win the pot right there when you are ahead. Given that you checked the flop and it's two back to me. I like a fold to the raise.

I also don't like a raise on the river. I think a player with .44 AF is not going to raise that river without a better flush or without having filled up. I like bet/call on the river.

#5 11-09-2005, 03:57 PM

With a player that has something like 80% vpip, I think the AF has converged pretty well. You can get better AF confidence when the VPIP is higher for the same number of hands, because they are seeing more flops.

crazygoose · #6 11-09-2005, 04:42 PM

I think you are just plain wrong dano. I would fold that flop. Rest of the hand looks fine except for that river call. The only reason I would call this would be to gain a read on a guy who I will be in many future pots wiht.

#7 11-09-2005, 04:59 PM

After getting past the argument that you should have folded the flop, let's look at the river play.

I like the lead-out bet with your 3rd nut flush. However, when UTG, who has been aggressive throughout the hand, raises, you should just call. You "only" have the 3rd nut flush, so you have to wonder if UTG has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. IMO, it's more likely that UTG has something like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q offsuit and is pushing his trip-Qs and backed into the 2nd nut flush. Also, because the board is paired, UTG may have a boat, perhaps flopping it with 8-8 in the pocket. Or perhaps UTG has a weak Q-x but paired his kicker for a boat.

There are too many ways for you to lose this hand, and if UTG is still willing to be the aggressor with a board like that, knowing full-well that you're probably not going to fold a 12 BB pot for one more BB, you should just call UTG's river raise.

#8 11-09-2005, 05:33 PM

12 to 1 pot odds and the chance he is overplaying a Q is good enough for me.

I still like to lead this flop. I think you are ahead often enough to warrant a bet. Do you fold to any flop bet from any position here?