Kinda different AK hand, play-along - Page 3

Carmine · #21 09-22-2005, 07:28 AM

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I think there is at least a 50% possibility that this player has AA.

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Isn't that quite exaggerated? There are only two aces left. It's very unlikely she has AA; AK and AQ is much more likely, and considering she's LAGgy, an even weaker A is also possible, perhaps even as low as A8. 88 is also a possibility, and perhaps a high pocket pair she can't let go.

But no, we do not need to be concerned here generally, it's all about equity and we have nice pot equity here. I'd say call the flop and raise the turn extracting $$$ from mr BB king.

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The PF 3-bet and a flop C/R means set very often. She pulled this move even after Hero caps PF. She has not 3-bet Hero PF untill this hand. She broke form by C/R the flop rather than leading. Yes I'm concerned here. We lose to AA, we tie with AK, we lose to 88, we win against AQ which we don't know she would 3-bet although Hero may have a better idea depending on what raising hands she has been showing down. I agree that raising the turn is the second best play here.

Avatar of Wine · #22 09-22-2005, 11:55 AM

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Don't we need to be concerned here. I think there is at least a 50% possibility that this player has AA. You think this player is so bad she can't put you on an Ace by the action so far. Also so bad that by the way she has been playing she now thinks she can push you off any Ax hand.

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I can't agree - assigning an even-money probability to this player having the remaining aces in the deck seems . . . specious at best. I will, however, agree that AA/88 should be given significant weight (although 88 more, in a probability sense).

It's exactly for this reason I'm calling the flop, and raising the turn - this will extract the most from hands you're behind (1 AA, 3 88, 6 A8 although you have redraws, and seems suspect from PF action), and extract the most when you're ahead (almost anything else, dep on turn).

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I'm calling down. I think nothing to gain by pushing her off KK (not that that is possible with this player) and how many outs does BB have against us to worry about him drawing out on us. Let him pad the pot for us.

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Why don't we put a range on BB to see how many outs? I think a huge portion of the time this player has either 2 or 3 outs (pp or smaller ace) - worrying about that drawing out seems a bit weak.

If you don't feel it's possible to push the button off KK, why not extract the most when s/he has that particular hand (of which six are available, as opposed to AA...)?

spoohunter · #23 09-22-2005, 12:12 PM

I can see no convincing reason not to three bet. You are ahead a vast majority of the time, may get a cap from a worst hand, and AQ might even get sweet and check raise you on the turn (SB). I am three betting, and raising a cap/turn lead.

You are not behind very often here. I would keep an eye on BB if an 8 comes on the turn as that is what I put him on.

#24 09-22-2005, 12:27 PM

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It's exactly for this reason I'm calling the flop, and raising the turn - this will extract the most from hands you're behind...and extract the most when you're ahead.

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Que?

ErrantNight · #25 09-22-2005, 12:29 PM

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Cap and announce your presence with authority.

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I prefer to do that with a fastball. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 7 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, Hero...?

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hits his runner runner nut flush on a non-paired board.

Jake (The Snake) · #26 09-22-2005, 01:40 PM

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3-bet the flop, BB is trapped.

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Avatar of Wine · #27 09-22-2005, 04:08 PM

I'm a moron . . .

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It's exactly for this reason I'm calling the flop, and raising the turn - this will extract the most from hands you're behind...and extract the most when you're ahead.

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Que?

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This should read as "better define his/her hand (and your outs) when you are behind, and extract the most when you're ahead"

Whoops.

callmedonnie · #28 09-22-2005, 04:11 PM

(Only read flop action)

Cap for value, with position, against a lag, and a calling station.

Read the flop: three bet it. You are likely best, BB is a producer that needs to pay. Although SB has yet to three bet, I can't just assume AA so I three bet.

Harv72b · #29 09-22-2005, 05:21 PM

I think that most people are looking to 3-bet the flop, which is what I did. I wasn't ready to give SB credit for AA/88 just yet, and I knew that she wasn't folding anything but a truly hopeless hand--maybe something like QJs or KQs that she's trying to get fancy with. I actually thought it most likely that she either had another AK or possibly AQ/AJ, and BB was just calling because that's what he does.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 7 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

The last two streets pretty much play themselves after SB just called the flop 3-bet. I am, of course, betting for value on the river.

And I will transfer $5 to anyone's Party account if they can correctly guess what SB & BB held in this hand. Doesn't count if you were at the table. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

#30 09-22-2005, 05:25 PM

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And I will transfer $5 to anyone's Party account if they can correctly guess what SB & BB held in this hand. Doesn't count if you were at the table. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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If this is just a cleverly disguised bad beat story, I'm going to be pissed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]