#1
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AA hands
<font color="red">Hand 1</font>
Villain is 75/20 over 20 hands. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter Hero ($24.75) UTG ($38.25) UTG+1 ($11.55) MP1 ($32.9) MP2 ($23.25) MP3 ($15.1) CO ($9.95) Button ($16.25) SB ($52.65) Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $2.75</font>, MP3 folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.75</font>, MP2 calls $2.25. Flop: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Bingo. I'm not afraid of the straight, I'm not afraid of the flush, I want to do whatever I can to get stacks in the middle. I figured a bet would scare away KK and QQ, so I'll check-call, and lead out the turn. Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP2 calls $4. After $2, things aren't progressing quickly enough, so I raised to $6. Turn: ($22.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Again, I'm not afraid of a flush or a straight - I'm still convinced I'm way ahead. <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12.25</font> Everything look reasonable? Is the flop ok? |
#2
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AA hand 2
Villain is 33/5 over 60 hands
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter UTG ($35.45) UTG+1 ($50) MP1 ($21.35) MP2 ($34.05) MP3 ($24.75) Hero ($30.85) Button ($24.25) SB ($24.75) BB ($24.25) Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $1. Flop: ($2.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, UTG+1 calls $43.75 (All-In), Hero...? Is this a set often enough to fold? |
#3
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Re: AA hands
Hand one:
Raise more preflop. You're letting him in too cheaply here. That's a very scary board to slow play top set. Definitely lead out here, unless you've got a real aggressive player who you know will take a stab at it. You've left out the most important thing here, what is your read on your opponent in this hand? Three aces are represented, so there's a good chance he doesn't have the 4th ace. If he checks & a queen falls on the turn, now what? With that said, you're check raise is once again far too small, raise him $8 or more here. |
#4
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Re: AA hands
1: make it 8 preflop and push the flop.
2: you're either 50/50 against some kind of nice draw or crushed by a set. i call the flop overbet and see what he does on the turn, dumping it to a PSB. fim |
#5
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Re: AA hand 2
For the second hand lets look at the math.
The pot is $63.60 Its $31.75 to call. So you are getting 2 to 1 for a call. If he hit a set you have about a 10-11% chance of winning. If he has 55, then you have about a 61% chance of winning. If he has KK, QQ, JJ then you have about a 90% chance of winning. Could he have 76 suited? Where you only have about a 27% chance of winning. To make it simple lets make some assumptions: 1) if he hit a set you have a 10% chance of winning. 2) if he didn't hit a set you have a 90% chance of winning. Let X be the % chance the villain hold a set. Then (1 - X) is the % chance the villain doesn't hold a set. Then you have the formula: X * 10% * $63.60 + X * 90% * (-$31.75) + (1 - X) * 90% * $63.60 + (1 - X) * 10% * (-31.75) That simplifies to: $54.07 - 76.28 X Set the equation to zero and solve for X. X is aprox 70.8% If you read that the probability that the villain holds a set is greater that 70.8% then you fold, Else you call. |
#6
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Re: AA hand 2
1. very good analysis, this i the type of thinking that makes you a winner long term
2. you neglected what may be his most likely holding however, namely a big hand that's 50/50 (45, 56, 75) which have monster outs against him. this moves your 90% figure down quite a bit, so if you plug in ~60% instead i'd say you have a much better model. nice post. fim |
#7
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Re: AA hands
[ QUOTE ]
1: make it 8 preflop and push the flop. 2: you're either 50/50 against some kind of nice draw or crushed by a set. i call the flop overbet and see what he does on the turn, dumping it to a PSB. [/ QUOTE ] 1: Yeah, my last reraise was pretty weenie. I think my math left me for a bit. Then the flop push makes sense. 2: I like this line too. The flat call may slow him down, and a big turn bet lets me get away cheaper than the reraise on the flop. If he checks the turn, I PSB? |
#8
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Re: AA hand 2
Good approach, but I'll tweak your numbers. Effectively, the pot is $44.10, and it's $17.60 to call - his stack is bigger, so his all-in is really smaller, making it easier to call.
Using your numbers (which neglect what fimbulwinter said about the pair + straight draw) we get X * 10% * $44.10 + X * 90% * (-$17.60) + (1 - X) * 90% * $44.10 + (1 - X) * 10% * (-17.60) which simplifies down to x ~= 77%. As an exercise, I'll run through the whole thing based strictly off hand frequencies. AA-JJ - I'll assume I would've either seen a raise or a re-raise. TT - 6 99 - 6 88 - 6 77 - 3 66 - 3 55 - 6 44 - 3 54 - 3 65 - 3 76 - 2 75 - 3 I'm assuming the connectors must be suited. 2 combinations = 4.5% 3 combinations = 6.8% 6 combinations = 13.6% (TT) .136 * (.88 * 44.10 + .12 * -17.6) = 4.99 (99) .136 * (.88 * 44.10 + .12 * -17.6) = 4.99 (88) .136 * (.74 * 44.10 + .26 * -17.6) = 3.82 (77) .068 * (.10 * 44.10 + .90 * -17.6) = -0.78 (66) .068 * (.11 * 44.10 + .89 * -17.6) = -0.74 (55) .136 * (.61 * 44.10 + .39 * -17.6) = 2.73 (44) .068 * (.11 * 44.10 + .89 * -17.6) = -0.74 (54) .068 * (.54 * 44.10 + .46 * -17.6) = 1.07 (65) .068 * (.51 * 44.10 + .49 * -17.6) = 0.94 (76) .045 * (.26 * 44.10 + .74 * -17.6) = -0.07 (75) .068 * (.52 * 44.10 + .48 * -17.6) = 0.98 Summing these gives me $17.20 per time I call. I don't think TT-88 is too reasonable to go all in with, so removing those gives me $3.40, still a reasonable call - every other pair he could have is just gravy. Can someone better than me at this verify if this is right? |
#9
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Re: AA hands
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter
Hero ($24.75) UTG ($38.25) UTG+1 ($11.55) MP1 ($32.9) MP2 ($23.25) MP3 ($15.1) CO ($9.95) Button ($16.25) SB ($52.65) Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $2.75</font>, MP3 folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.75</font>, MP2 calls $2.25. Flop: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP2 calls $4. Turn: ($22.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12.25</font>, MP2 calls $12.25 (All-In). River: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: $47 Results: Hero has Ah Ad (three of a kind, aces). MP2 has Jc Kd (flush, ace high). Outcome: MP2 wins $47. I was utterly speechless. |
#10
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Re: AA hand 2
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter
UTG ($35.45) UTG+1 ($50) MP1 ($21.35) MP2 ($34.05) MP3 ($24.75) Hero ($30.85) Button ($24.25) SB ($24.75) BB ($24.25) Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $1. Flop: ($2.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, UTG+1 calls $43.75 (All-In), Hero folds. Final Pot: $63.60 I folded. Unless I have a solid read as a set, this was incorrect. |
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