Joe Tall is This What You Were Talking About

rory · #1 07-13-2005, 11:03 AM

I open raise on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Too loose but pretty good postflop player calls in the BB. Pretty good means is very good at putting people on hands but isn't a great value-bettor and likes to give free cards and all of that. Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He checks, I bet, he calls. Turn is the 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He bets, I raise, he calls. River is 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He checks, I bet, he raises, I fold.

Derek in NYC · #2 07-13-2005, 11:19 AM

I never make these folds. I think it sets a bad precedent to fold against sharp players, to either a river checkraise or river raise, when I have a hand that can be shown down.

Alobar · #3 07-13-2005, 11:57 AM

The folds good, its obvious you are beaten.

My question is the river bet. If he is a good hand reader, and a crappy value bettor and likes to give free cards. What does his turn bet mean to you? Is it a made hande, or donking a draw? or a monster? Since he is a good hand reader, he has to put you on a hand that beats whatever it is he has when he gets raised, if you do have a hand that beats him. Will he even call your river bet with a weaker made hand? Seems like a good post flop player wouldnt.

sthief09 · #4 07-13-2005, 12:01 PM

if he's perceptive he might notice that because of the 3 cards to a wheel, that Ax will call a bet but probably check behind because he has outs. so he bets, and when he gets raised he can be pretty sure the river is getting bet because AK can't afford to raise the turn because he has a gut shto and will be priced into calling a 3-bet. so he can pretty safely put rory on a pair when he raises the turn, and he will assume rory will bet the river.

now I don't know if he's thinking that way, but it makes sense to me.

Alobar · #5 07-13-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he's perceptive he might notice that because of the 3 cards to a wheel, that Ax will call a bet but probably check behind because he has outs. so he bets, and when he gets raised he can be pretty sure the river is getting bet because AK can't afford to raise the turn because he has a gut shto and will be priced into calling a 3-bet. so he can pretty safely put rory on a pair when he raises the turn, and he will assume rory will bet the river.

now I don't know if he's thinking that way, but it makes sense to me.

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yeah, thats what Im saying. Which is why I'm asking if the river should be bet against a good hander reader/post flop player. He has to know hes beat, so will he call? There also is the possibility that he could then try and pull some bluff raise, because on that board its incredibly likely rory just has a pair and only a pair, and rory is also a good player capable of folding. I know its all playeres specific, but these kind of river "value bets" make me nervous against good hand readers, because I've given them enough info to nail my hand down pretty well, they shouldn't call, but they know enough to know a raise is going to put the fear of god into me. So I often check behind, unless along with being smart they are stupid in the fact they just HAVE to see the showdown.

sthief09 · #6 07-13-2005, 12:45 PM

I think we're both giving this guy too much credit

Alobar · #7 07-13-2005, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think we're both giving this guy too much credit

[/ QUOTE ]

So you mean this guy also wasnt the 2nd gunman on the grassy knoll? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

aK13 · #8 07-13-2005, 04:27 PM

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I think we're both giving this guy too much credit

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I agree. Your analysis is very complex -- I'm sure many good 2+2ers here would have trouble undergoing this thought process.

I still can't make the river fold, though.

cartman · #9 07-13-2005, 01:52 PM

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.....but probably check behind because he has outs.

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Maybe a gutshot isn't the best example for me to try to learn something from, but I have always struggled with this concept. It would seem to me that the additional equity that I get from my outs would make it BETTER to bet when I have outs, not worse.

Checking behind with an Ace high hand with outs makes sense to me, provided that I am planning on calling a river bet unimproved. But if I am planning on folding unimproved to a river bet this seems crazy to me.

For example, lets say after openraising preflop and betting the flop heads up and getting called, I have JTs on a Q642 board with two of my suit. Checking here seems awful to me. The prospect of checking and forfeiting my folding equity because of the threat of having to call a checkraise is not appealing. The fact that I have the flush draw outs seems like it should make me more inclined to bet because getting called on the turn less bad. Maybe I am overestimating the value of the folding equity on the turn. But intuitively it seems avoiding the additional cost when I am checkraised is not proper compensation for the loss of my folding equity.

Can you guys shed some light on this?

Thanks,
Cartman

sthief09 · #10 07-13-2005, 03:42 PM

with a flush draw it doesn't apply, but think about how much this sucks:

you have 76... flop is Q43 and the turn is a 2. you're checked to. say there are 4 bets in the pot after you bet. if he checkraises you can be pretty sure your overcard outs are no good. now he checkraises and you're getting 6-1 with a gut shto and have to fold. along the same lines, sometimes a chcekraise will give you 9-1, and you end up paying 2 bets for your gutter. you've priced yourself into calling which sucks. it is along the same lines as (and I made this mistake yesterday) raising a donkbet and pricing yourself into paying off a 3-bet to draw to a gutter

soemtimes trying to induce a fold just isn't worth it. now say the pot is somehow 12 bets instead. it's probably worth taking a shot since you can call anyway.