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#1
12-11-2005, 11:38 PM
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Call down or fold?
BB is unknown and has just sat down at table for like 10 hands. Nothing to indicate maniac so far. Call down or fold?
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls. Turn: (7 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero ??? 
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#3
12-11-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: Call down or fold?
I fold too. Don't forget the SB still likes their hand enough to keep going...
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#5
12-12-2005, 01:02 AM
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Re: Call down or fold?
6-1 if SB folds 7-1 if he doesn't. We don't have a read. I think we have enough equity to call down. Maybe [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#6
12-12-2005, 01:23 AM
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Re: Call down or fold?
Yuck. The more I look at this, the more I want to fold. But I think we need to call down.
There's already 10 BB in the pot by the time it gets back to us. [I am ignoring more bets from the SB ... sometimes he beats us but I think he's got a weaker 9 so the extra bets he puts in here for our overlay should negate the times he's ahead.] If we call here we must call down when BB bets the river, which means we're putting in 2 bets to win 11. Our hand has to be good 14 % of the time here. Now, if we were good just 10 % of the time here, I think we'd have to call, given the chance of a bluff or the BB's dog jumping on the keyboard, right? Well, as it turns out, we'll hit a 9 on the river about 4 % of the time and get an extra bet as well when it happens. Also, there's a small chance he's going nuts with TT-KK or 22 for an underful, both of which we have drawing outs against. It's a calldown without overwhelming evidence that the BB is supertight. But it's close.
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#8
12-12-2005, 01:43 AM
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Re: Call down or fold?
call and river a 9 for the higher boat.
seriously tho, we probably need to call-down and see if he's the kind to donk these kind of scarecards.
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#10
12-12-2005, 02:12 AM
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Re: Call down or fold?
[ QUOTE ]
the pots protected, his c/r is always for value here. just fold [/ QUOTE ] Nothing is "always" in poker. There's a good chance. You really think it's 100 % though? You won't give a 10 % margin of bull?
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