HItting a monster with Suited Connectors

[pipster]

This is a question I was discussing this weekend at the Luxor and I never could come up with a good answer... So I thought you probablity guys could help. What is the odds of hitting a monster with suited connectors on the flop/by the river.

ie: Flopping a flush draw, straight draw, 2 pair, trips, boat, quads. (I am sure the last 3 are pretty slim).

I know the odds of a Flush draw flopping are about 8 to 1, and it will come in 1 in 3 times.. So effectively 16 to 1 to hit it by the river. What about the others?

The part of this exercise is to determine what kind of flop odds I need before calling on suited connectors.

[dkernler]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the odds of hitting a monster with suited connectors on the flop/by the river.

ie: Flopping a flush draw, straight draw, 2 pair, trips, boat, quads. (I am sure the last 3 are pretty slim).


[/ QUOTE ]
A good site: pre-flop odds calculator.

P(flush) = C(11,3)/C(50,3) = 0.008
(choose 3 of your suit from 11)
P(flush draw) = C(11,2)*39/C(50,3) = 0.109
(choose 2 of your suit and one of the other 39)
P(full house) = 2*3*C(3,2)/C(50,3) = 0.0009
(2 ways, 3 choices for pr, C(3,2) for trips)
P(4 of a kind) = 2/C(50,3) = 0.0001
(2 ways)

For some reason, I can't figure out these:

P(2 pr) = 3*3*44/C(50,3) = 0.020
I'm thinking 3 of each of your hole cards, then 44 for the 3rd card, but the answer is different than the calculator.

P(trips) = 2*C(3,2)*44/C(50,3) = 0.013
Here I'm thinking 2 choices for the trips, then C(3,2) ways to pick two of them, and then 44 choices for the 3rd card. Again, it's different than the calculator.

P(straight) = ?
P(OESD) = ?

I should know this stuff, but my head hurts. Does anyone know what I'm missing?

[pipster]

Very interesting... Good site btw.

If I assume a 12% chance of hitting an OESD (just pulling that number out of the air). That puts it right about 30% to flop either a monster or a draw to a monster. (24% for a draw to a monster, which will come in approximately half the time, so 12%). So suited connectors would hit a monster by the river about 18% of the time.