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#1
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Re: Hand...
Well I'm not saying it's impossible that you will be raised by a jack or pocket pair here, but I just really can't remember it ever happening to me in a similar spot. As for the comment about the flush draw, I think if he's aggressive he seriously bets or checkraises about 90-95% of the time. What do you think that number is?
I don't think reraising is "out of the question" at all. But I think if your 3bet is called or reraised, you're winning here (not including splitting which we can ignore) somewhere between 50-60% of the time. Thats just a guess though...I really don't know. |
#2
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Re: Hand...
I think 75+% you'll see a bet or a C/R from a FD here - which is still a biggish number but not quite as high as I guess you think.
And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped. |
#3
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Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped [/ QUOTE ] Ya, what I was just trying to say with that 50-60 statement (which was a little cryptic), was that I don't think you are good the requisite 66% here if we assume villain never folds, and always reraises with better hands. If he folds some of the hands you are ahead of , we need to be ahead a greater percentage. |
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