How Many Suckouts Do You Make In Your Tourney Wins?

[winky51]

I think selecting the right time to risk all your chips is very important. 75% ahead only wins 1/3 of the time if you are all in 4 times.

I prefer building my stack with smaller raises and bets. I found I win a lot more small pots 90% of the time and lose small pots 10% of the time.

Once in a while I have a spontaneous brain fart and suckout with a turd hand on a bad call. Rare but there.

I do find in 30 min live rounds I usually have to SUCK once.

In 20 min live rounds with less chips I have to keep sucking, like 5 times in a row all in and win to make the final table

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I think selecting the right time to risk all your chips is very important. 75% ahead only wins 1/3 of the time if you are all in 4 times.


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??????
3/4 or 3:1

[FrogMouth]

I have noticed 3 types of luck in most of my tourny wins.

1)Getting paid off on big hands.
2)Not getting crippled by other's big hands
3)suckouts

For me at least, 1 and 2 have been much more instumental in my big cahses than suckouts. I remember tripling up w/ AA near the bubble as the key to my first win. I also remember only denting my stack when my set of 8's ran into flush and I got scared off. I will admit that I did have one win where I couldn't loose a hand, and went into every one with the worst of it. But that is a rarity.

Oh ya, #4)stealing the blinds, and not running into AA!!

[winky51]

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Oh ya, #4)stealing the blinds, and not running into AA!!

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Very very important. I love stealing blinds. I think I make more money that way.

[adanthar]

Very few. I don't think I've ever had over 2 real suckouts while winning a tourney and in the 100K win my worst all in was 46/54.

Every time I have > 3 suckouts along the way in a single tournament, I'm either in some unavoidable spots (KK vs. AA, combo draw vs. set with shallow stacks, etc.) or not playing my A game/probably not playing my B game.

[winky51]

If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.

.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = 0.3164%~

that's all I'm saying. I'd rather level out the luck with winning smaller pots 90% of the time and losing 10%. Rather than getting it in with the best hand thats 75% ahead 4 times in a row. The 2 high standard deviations of fish that call you here will eventually beat you in that race. This is in low level $200 tournaments where most of the field are fish. There will be more fish with larger stacks than good player swith large stacks.. So I always have 2-3 larger stacks at my table with 2 of them loose and in the "gambling mood".

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If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.



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this makes no sense.

but sadly, I understand what you mean.

does that make sense?

you are using a control group of 4 rather than an absolute of 4. i get it. 100 sets of 4 allins equals 31 of those sets you will win all 4 allins. originally it sounded as if you were talking about ONLY 4 allins. this was worded poorly, i hope you see why i was confuzzled.

[winky51]

np man. I was confused too when I kept pushing with the best hand and losing tournaments.

"How can I lose I went in with the best hand!?!?!?!"

Now I know and I do much better now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bobbycharles]

[ QUOTE ]
If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.

.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = 0.3164%~


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This may be the Holy Grail I've been looking for...ok, that's a stretch, but I've never done the math from an entire tourney standpoint before.

This could be the single most important concept I never understood. Ok, that's a stretch too...but.. No wonder I'm always so pissed when I get knocked out of a tourney with the best hand going in and lose to the runner runner.

Thanks Winky. Excellent.

I agree with Adanthar, my good finishes come from not suffering bad beats. Getting my money in when I'm ahead and have an edge and it holds up. That needs to happen several times to win a tourney.