How much does Won $ at showdown mean?

kongo_totte · #1 06-02-2005, 05:44 AM

I was ready to auto muck to the flop check-raise until I checked his stats. He is VP$IP 42 and W$SD 29% after 160 hands. With that in mind, is this still a horrible play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

Hero ($54.75)
SB ($72.8)
BB ($49.5)
UTG ($41.1)
UTG+1 ($58.9)
MP1 ($64.18)
MP2 ($51.25)
MP3 ($51.12)
CO ($11)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($5.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $5, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $25, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $35, UTG pushes $14.60 (All-In), Hero calls $4.60.

Turn: ($89.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($89.45) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $89.45

jkkkk · #2 06-02-2005, 06:09 AM

i gotta say i think your beat here, just because they don't win often at showdown doesn't mean they are going to check, then re-raise someone with rubbish on the flop, showdown muppets tend to cling to their cards for dear life calling value bets all the way, not pushing their stack in with Ax.

Gustavo · #3 06-02-2005, 06:16 AM

Is it just me , or people who dont know how to use stats very well, will misdjudge their played , based on the stats.

[ QUOTE ]
i gotta say i think your beat here, just because they don't win often at showdown doesn't mean they are going to check, then re-raise someone with rubbish on the flop, showdown muppets tend to cling to their cards for dear life calling value bets all the way, not pushing their stack in with Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

theredpill5 · #4 06-02-2005, 07:02 AM

Speak English Gustavo. Can't understand what you are saying.

Why in god's name are you raising to $35 on flop ? Didn't you read the thread about overplaying AK postflop ? We basically said not to do exactly what you did on the flop. You have a pair of aces. Not a big hand by any means. You are willing to put in nearly your whole stack with it ?

kongo_totte · #5 06-02-2005, 07:12 AM

As I said, this is not my usual line. After his check-raise, this is a push or fold situation (where the $35 raise equals a push). My usual line is to fold, but after looking at his stats, I talked myself into that this could be A Q or some other crap. Also, there is alot of dead money in the pot. I'm risking $25 to win $65. Also, I was not sure what to make of his W$SD-stats, which is why I posted it.

After all, I think playing the way I did is not an optimal play, but it's not very very bad.

MLerra · #6 06-02-2005, 07:51 AM

I think it entirely depends on the WtSD stat as well - what was that? If that's something like 40%, then he's going to (.42)(.4)=~16% of 160 showdowns, which is about 26 showdowns. So you've got about as good a sample size as you could get.

Personally, I do like to look at WtSD and W$SD to help inform my calling and betting decisions. If WtSD is high (30% or above), I will bet more with my good hands because I know he'll be more likely to stay in. If W$SD is high (65%+), I'm more careful with my bets, and will generally check OOP. If W$SD is low, I'll be more likely to take a slightly less powerful hand all the way.

I actually think your line is decent, though again this depends largely on WtSD as well.

PinkSteel · #7 06-02-2005, 08:16 AM

That's a really low W$SD, but like others have said, Villain's aggression is what should make you nervous. He may have called down a bunch of cheap hands and lost them; this may be the first hand he raised postflop. He may EVEN be a sharp player who has intentionally called down a few cheap hands for information value on his opponents.

Stats aside, I wouldn't have made the flop raise; just seems expensive with TPTK in a multiway pot.

By Villain's action, he can't be afraid of a high A, so about the worst he could have seems like AK. Result?

kongo_totte · #8 06-02-2005, 09:40 AM

Thanks everyone. This has been a very valuble to my understanding of some PT-stats. Of course, he had flopped a set, which turned to quads.

He had 2 2

theredpill5 · #9 06-02-2005, 09:54 AM

I think a lot of people look at the stats way too much to make their decisions. I use stats more to confirm my beliefs in what they have. His W$SD or whatever that is, is low but that could mean that he plays top pair with weak kickers way too much to the river but it doesn't necessarily mean that when he raises big on the flop that he doesn't have a very good hand.

meow_meow · #10 06-02-2005, 03:33 PM

It needs to be noted that your sample size is way, way to small go give you a meaningful W$SD number. 160 hands is ok for vpip and pfr, but definitely not for W$SD.