max 400 - valueraise river?

[Chr]

Max 400 Prima 10-handed

Villain: 28/5/8 (vpip/pfr/af) seems decent, haven't seen any tricky plays, wins only 35% at showdown, but I only have around 100 hands with him.

All stacks $450

Folded to villain in mp who raise to $12, folded to hero on button with black AA raise to $30, blinds fold, villain call.

Flop K 6 3 all spades pot: $66

Villain check, hero bet $40, villain instaraise to $80, hero call.

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Pot: $226

Villain bet $60, hero call

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Pot $346

Villain bet $70, Hero ?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
seems decent,

[/ QUOTE ]you think this guy is gonna pay off with the worst hand?

[MTBlue]

Kinda confused by your flop play. Why not get all the money in?
Villain either has ak or kk unless he likes to try to bluff preflop reraisers. With your flush outs you have 11 outs against KK and are absolutely dominating ak. Pushing on the flop has some definite advantages. On the river just call, raising could induce a bluff reraise a certain percentage of the time b/c of your previous play villian probably thinks you have qxqs so he come over the top with ak but he will always come over the top with kk putting you in a jam.

[Chr]

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seems decent,

[/ QUOTE ]you think this guy is gonna pay off with the worst hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, I don't think there is a very big chance on this board, but is there anything but a worse hand he can have here?

[Chr]

Yea, the flop push was my first thought at the table, mostly to make it look like a semibluff and hope he would pick it off with something else than KKK.

If I call and raise later, I represent something like AsQs.

I was just afraid that I would lose AK too often here to make it worth it.

I am sure many others would push here. I really would like to get a more detailed explanation of why. How often do you think AK, QQ, JJ would call here?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seems decent,

[/ QUOTE ]you think this guy is gonna pay off with the worst hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

is there anything but a worse hand he can have here?

[/ QUOTE ]??? YES!?

[ipp147]

Hi Chr,

Villains turn and river bet size confuse me as he really looks like hes milking you but he doesn't have the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so I can only assume he has QJ/QT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

If he has a made flush though then his flop mini raise OOP was horrible. This mini raise looks like a set but I assume on that flop he would raise alot more.

I call here. I don't think a worse hand is calling a river raise.

[Chr]

Flush is impossible, he raised pf and I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is on board. (JT??... not really)

Can't really see a set execpt if he maybe hit a miracle T, but would he play TT that way on flop and turn?

This leaves KKK of cause, but it's really remote, isn't it? I would expect him to reraise pf with that.

Furthermore his minraise on flop looks more like a "where am I at" than a monster trying to build a pot. Turn and river confirms that.

[kagame]

wow i wish i knew my opponents had such strict raising and then calling min reraise standards

seriously he could have suited connectors or any of the pairs that set right?

[Chr]

Thanks a lot for input.

On river I was almost certain he had AK and I considered raising, but chickend out and made a call. It was KKK that scared me the most.

He showed A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I took down $484.

I often feel I am too weak in situations where i think I have a good read of the hand and I was really mad at myself that I didn't stick to my read. But I figure he would have a hard time to call anyway.

Does anybody like moving in on the flop - and why?