(109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

[wuwei]

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So I'm with Raptor and Irieguy and the (ICM bubble enlightened?) minority on both AQo bubble hands.

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I voted call on both, which I guess makes me an inconsistent bubble thinker at best [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

My first instinct here is to call. The only little pang I have is that I don't like the possibility that the big stack has one of my aces killed, but I think that worry is nullified by the possibility that I have the short stack domintated.

[Roman]

instacall... I didnt know you were so damn weaktight raptor.

[Scuba Chuck]

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It is only a .4% mistake to call here if everyone will win 1/3 of the time (and it is 50/50 HU should you fold). AQ is just too good in this spot to not play I would think. You have to think that you have 40% equity here, no? That would certainly be enough to make this call.

Brad

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I think he has more than 40% equity here. I really like a call here, particularly the more you revere big stack, the better the call.

[Vee Quiva]

Is this logic correct? According to ICM if I fold and small stack wins I lose .0538 $EV. If I fold and Big Stack wins I only gain .0142 $EV.

So in theory it makes sense to call with any 2 because folding is - $EV?

Calling is too hard for my feeble math mind to calculate due to the side pot issues.

[Nicholasp27]

both folding and calling can be -ev

for instance, if u are bb and fold, u lost ev cause u lost the blind u posted, but calling with that 27o to 5 pushers isn't exactly +ev

calling may be more -ev than folding, which makes it -ev to call...calling may be less -ev than folding, which makes it +ev to call instead of fold, even tho u lose ev when calling

[raptor517]

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instacall... I didnt know you were so damn weaktight raptor.

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i welcome you to come play with me any time any day if you deem me weak tight. k tx. holla

[lacky]

wow, I'm really confused how almost half think they need to play this hand. This place is getting weird.

[lacky]

why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[z32fanatic]

I would call for these reasons:
1. If the shorty wins then the next hand he has 1400 before posting and you only have 1800 before posting the SB. I would put your odds of moneying at ~60-65%.
2. I think the big stack pushes almost anything here because he should want to keep the bubble alive and steal from all of you so you are almost always ahead of him and possibly have him dominated.
3. You can help knock the shorty out.
4. If you win you will have 5000 and will be a large favorite to win the tourney.
5. The chances of you losing to the shorty and the shorty beating the big stack are not good. You are not likely to bubble here.