i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,, - Page 5

ClaytonN · #41 11-23-2005, 09:12 PM

If you're in the BB and you're holding AQo, and you notice Chip Jett has 2 antes a table over, and UTG pushes for about 6 BB's, what do you put him on?

UTG should push with the JJ, it's close but I think he gets the table to fold a lot fearing UTG for a monsterous hand with QQ being the weakest possible holding ESPECIALLY when you consider UTG knows he is on the bubble and there are cripples all around, and the table KNOWS that he KNOWS.

schwza · #42 11-23-2005, 09:12 PM

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This is bad timing for a blind steal, in my opinion. As I pointed out, the blinds do barely anything for you $EV wise, so you're risking substantially for not much gain. If all we're interested in is the blinds, why not wait until we have 72 on the button, which would probably be a higher EV play?

I guess my point is that JJ just isn't dominant enough to make this a substantial money winner, from what I've looked at so far. I must admit, I was expecting it to be an easy, easy fold; the numbers are closer to neutral than I would have guessed.

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i'm not saying that you should push. i'd fold. i'm just saying that it's ridiculous to say that increasing your stack doesn't help in any meaningful way. any analysis that doesn't give a signficant boost to equity after stealing can't be right.

gumpzilla · #43 11-23-2005, 09:18 PM

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i'm not saying that you should push. i'd fold. i'm just saying that it's ridiculous to say that increasing your stack doesn't help in any meaningful way. any analysis that doesn't give a signficant boost to equity after stealing can't be right.

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It increases the size of our stack by about 25-30%, right? How big an effect do you think this has on our $ equity, given the flatness of the pay scale for the next 80 places? If we assume (I think rightly so) that $ EV is going to grow less than linearly with chip stack, it amounts to somewhere between 1000 and 2000, I think. This gain is small compared to the potential loss of ~$10000. I'll freely admit that my analysis is oversimplified, but I think it's at least somewhat realistic.

gumpzilla · #44 11-23-2005, 09:20 PM

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If you're in the BB and you're holding AQo, and you notice Chip Jett has 2 antes a table over, and UTG pushes for about 6 BB's, what do you put him on?

UTG should push with the JJ, it's close but I think he gets the table to fold a lot fearing UTG for a monsterous hand with QQ being the weakest possible holding ESPECIALLY when you consider UTG knows he is on the bubble and there are cripples all around, and the table KNOWS that he KNOWS.

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You're assuming that everybody playing is hyper-observant to the point of near omniscience. I don't think that's a reasonable assumption. I think the range I assumed people would call with is almost certainly too tight, particularly since it is specified that many of the other players at the table are big stacks.

ClaytonN · #45 11-23-2005, 09:24 PM

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You're assuming that everybody playing is hyper-observant to the point of near omniscience. I don't think that's a reasonable assumption. I think the range I assumed people would call with is almost certainly too tight, particularly since it is specified that many of the other players at the table are big stacks.

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I disagree. I'm not giving the table credit for omniscience, I'm giving it credit for recognizing that hero is pushing about 9.6k worth when some other stacks have less than 2k. It only takes one guy to say "That guy must have a strong hand" to wise up everyone else. The one deterrance in that logic is the assumption that there are no gamble-happy players at the table.

sirio11 · #46 11-23-2005, 09:46 PM

I think sheets left out the important fact that the big blind in this hand has a monster stack (like 200k I think) and a willingness to call with almost anything.

nsj · #47 11-23-2005, 10:06 PM

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This is an 11k jump in prize money. The next 11k jump is from 10th to 9th place.

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Best sentence in this thread, IMO.

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Stop looking at the top payouts, you are not getting there anyway.

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Most likely not, but if you do, pushing JJ here, getting called, and doubling up is the first of many many steps toward a commanding stack.

Sit back, let Jett bust, get acclimatized, and THEN start climbing the mountain from base camp.

Seadood228 · #48 11-24-2005, 07:23 AM

Would you ever fold AA? At first I thought hero should have never looked at his/her cards, but now that Sirio mentioned the superstack in the BB, I think the odds of this being a multihanded pot go down, which would definitely tempt me to play them...

Who am I kidding, I wouldn't want to be faced with that situation, so I'd probably automuck without looking.

schwza · #49 11-24-2005, 12:36 PM

does anyone know the total chips in play? i'm going to do a chip count analysis of push vs fold and i haven't seen it. incidentally, there's no way any of could have a reasonable analysis at all w/out that info. if everyone but jett and us has 1000000000000000 chips it's an easy fold with AA.

jon_1van · #50 11-24-2005, 12:44 PM

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what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo.

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11k is nothing in the real world. At least not where I live (DC). It would be nice, sure. But it isn't paying off your mortgage or anything. It might payoff a car, but hell, those loans are only 3 years anyway.

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ugh. this shouldnt even be an issue.

if you cant see the difference in $11k for a person with bankroll enough to play $5 SNGs and $11k for a person with bankroll enough to direct buy into $10k tourneys, then, whatever.

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I'm not trying to sound like an ass. 11k is a good amount of money. But I'd define "alot of money" as an amount of money that would impact my lifestyle. And I don't 11k will do that for many people. At least not people with a car payment/car insurance payments/student loan payments/a mortgage/ etc etc.

11k might payoff 1 of those bills. But it won't have you quiting your job, buying a massive new mansion.

I don't mean to offend you. But this all goes back to what matters to you, and what you are trying to achieve in this tourny