Party 15-30 turn decision

[skp]

Unknown UTG limps. I complete in sb with 9d2d. BB checks. BB is 45/7/1.4 over about 300 hands.

Flop: Jd4d2h

I bet and they both call.

Turn card is seemingly a pretty good one for me: Js

I bet. bb raises and UTG coldcalls.

What is my move and is it obvious?

[stoxtrader]

I don't think it's obvious, but i like a fold.

[Lestat]

What were UTG's stats? I really don't like his cold call. The pot size doesn't excite me enough if UTG is solid. Bigger flush draw or minimum 3 jacks is reducing your outs to 7 at best and it can still get re-hit by the bb. I think you should fold, although I will concede you could easily be drawing live. It's the chance it can get re-raised and capped back to you that leaves me pretty unexcited about your hand.

[lostinthought]

[ QUOTE ]
It's the chance it can get re-raised and capped back to you that leaves me pretty unexcited about your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks to me like hero closes the action on the turn.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's obvious, but i like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think its a clear fold ... and closing the action on the turn i think i call here...when its not clear fold and i have good outs, even in a relatively small pot, i like a call here and if you hit, get to the showdown. if you dont, fold...

but there's 0 chance of having to pay MORE ... so pay the 1bb.

-Barron

[Lestat]

<font color="red">It looks to me like hero closes the action on the turn. </font>

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Really really sorry. That's correct.

I'm still not too excited about the size of the pot. UTG would be my main focus here. Not too worried about bb having flopped two pair as he figures to raise immediately on the flop. Maybe a set, but I've always been a little slow to give one opponent a flopped set. It's UTG that has me wanting to fold. It's a tough spot, that's for sure.

[CaliStyle]

CALL!!! Check the river and don't call two cold if UTG + 1 raises.

[Lestat]

Yeah, I really messed up here by reading too fast and thinking skp somehow didn't close the action.

I'm too lazy to do the math, but someone should do it. I figure it's 45/45/10 UTG has either flush draw, a jack, or a flopped set. Is 10% too much for a set here? Like I said, I'd really like to know UTG's stats.

If it's a flush draw (and he's solid), skp is dead in the water. Don't forget bb could have a set too, which alters the above 45/45/10 and why I'm too lazy to do all the math.

I really think this could be summed up in one math problem if someone wanted to do it. You could easily be right that 8 to 1 (closing the action), is worth it.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
What is my move and is it obvious?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call and yes.

[jayheaps]

how is the turn a good card for you?