A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

tipperdog · #1 07-26-2005, 09:23 PM

Like others, I've wondered why Daniel would issue his challenge. The widely-held consensus (S&M, Mike Sexton and others) is that Daniel takes the worst of it in these heads-up games, because he's allowing challengers to choose their best games. But even if you think Daniel's tournament heads-up experience gives him an edge, it's impossible to believe these are the most +EV games he can find.

So, why does he do it?

Thus far, explanations have included:

1. It's all a publicity stunt for the Wynn.
This has been pretty well debunked. The Wynn is not backing Daniel and that's that.

2. It's out-of-control ego.
Surely, there's some ego involved, but there must be more. If it's only ego, why not just play in the big game and try to bust Doyle, Chip, Jen, Phil, et. al?

All this leads to my very simple explanation. Why the challenge? Because it's the only game he can play.

Presumably, Daniel's contract as "ambassador" for the Wynn prohibits him from playing cash games at other area casinos (and possible out-of-area, as well). The Wynn people thought that Daniel would draw the big games from the Bellagio to the Wynn, but that simply hasn't happened. (Obviously, I'm not privy to their contract terms, but both Daniel and the Wynn have hinted that they have an "exclusive" relationship.) As a result of his exclusive deal with the Wynn, there are simply no high-stakes cash games in which Daniel can play!

So, what's a high-stakes poker action junkie to do? Daniel's answer seems as good as any I can imagine.

I would bet that had the Vegas high-stakes action shifted to the Wynn, Daniel would never have issued his open challenge. Instead, he'd be a regular in the Wynn 1K-2K or 2K-4K games. Unfortunately for him, these games just don't exist.

---

In response to the inevitable questions, do I really know anything? No, I'm just speculating.

In respone to the inevitable follow-ups, why do I care? I don't really. But I love pokah, pokah is nice and I spend way too much time thinking about things like this.

Discuss if you're interested.

Quicksilvre · #2 07-26-2005, 09:59 PM

I suppose it's plausible. I don't know enough about the challenge matches to say if I think it's likely or not, but it's more interesting a hypothesis than most I've seen.

GrannyMae · #3 07-26-2005, 10:08 PM

he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

perhaps daniel thinks it is EV+ to put some of it in play so his contract gets renewed next year.

this is daniel's way of marketing the room, and it has attracted a ton of attention.

sure, he could have banked his cash. i give him credit for sinking it back into the business. his business with wynn is himself. promoting the business is promoting himself. that costs money. however, in this set-up he actually has a shot at growing the money.

i think it is a brilliant promo.

Smoothcall · #4 07-26-2005, 10:15 PM

The main reason is ego imo. He wants to try to claim to be a great player or the greatest player and thinks he can prove it this way. The only smart thing about his challenge is its headup. Where his weakneses of playing too many hands is nullified. Put him in a full ring game and his weakness would be more costly.

SNOWBALL138 · #5 07-26-2005, 10:18 PM

Are you seriously contending that Daniel doesn't know how to play in full games? If you know something I don't, please share it.

Smoothcall · #6 07-26-2005, 10:26 PM

That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

Smoothcall · #7 07-26-2005, 10:33 PM

Yeah thats pretty much what i'm saying. He may or may not know proper pro strategy. Meaning what hands to play from where preflop. He rarely discusses techincal play. But even if he knows it i doubt he has the discipline to employ it. And doubt his ego would let him play tight either. As he is the type that thinks he will outplay the tighties with any 2(ala gus hansen). This is all speculation on my part. Just my guess.

Smoothcall · #8 07-26-2005, 10:41 PM

Let put it this way. If Dannyboy got in a full limit holdem ring game against the likes of lenny martin, david sklansky, abdul, mason malmuth, Roy Cooke, howard,lederer,jennifer harman he would eventually go home runnin to momma after he went broke.

tipperdog · #9 07-26-2005, 10:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

SNOWBALL138 · #10 07-26-2005, 10:57 PM

Ummm, why did you include Mason, Abdul, or Roy Cooke?

They're all very skilled players, but I've never heard anyone put them in the same lineup as Jen, and then at the same time claim that they are better than Daniel.

Don't you realize that Daniel has been playing since he was in high school and that he started from nothing playing full ring LHE games?

Again, if you know something that I don't, please share.

And why do you say that he doesn't have the discipline to play in full ring games? Discipline is not a "skill" in poker. Discipline is something that new players think gives them an automatic edge after they are done reading Lee Jones.