something's just not right...

[WillyTrailer]

Something about this guy's hand just doesn't make sense to me. How about you?

Opponent here is fairly tight and aggressive. Doesn't raise enough preflop though. He's at 23/6 and 2.4 AF on the flop and 6.3 on the turn after a sample of 200 hands.

On to the hand...

I open red 99 in the Hijack. Button cold-calls and Big Blind calls. Flop comes Js 7s 4d.
BB checks, I bet, Button raises, BB folds, I 3-bet, button calls.
turn, 7h

I bet, button raises, I...???

what does this cat have?

thanks for the thoughts,
WT

I dont know what the villain has, but it looks to me like he has you beat given the action. However given his high turn aggression, maybe he is semi-bluffin with a flushdraw.

Theres a chance you could be drawing to 2 outs and theres a chance you still have the best hand but there could be many cards in the deck that kill you on the river. No matter what decision you choose in this spot it will be difficult and debatable, but the truth is you shouldve never been in this difficult situation to begin with!!

When you bet that flop and the villain raises, you should realize that the intrinsic value of your hand just dropped significantly, yet you chose to 3 bet out of postion and put more money in this pot. In this situation, youre best move IMO is usually to just call the flop bet and then check and call all the way down unless you improve. You should call the flop becuz your hand isnt strong enough to raise since you could be drawing to 2 outs, but you cant fold since the villain could have a lower pair or a draw and hes raising the flop hoping you have two high cards. Notice how much easier it is to play this hand if you just call the flop raise and check and call down. Notice how there is a 0% chance you will ever get outplayed off the best hand with this line, and when you are trailing this line minimizes your loss, and when you are ahead you are still inducing your opponent to bluff all the way down.

[tribefan9]

I agree with Westley's analysis, but also would like to add that you are putting too much credit into stats after 200 hands. Even the VPIP takes longer than that to converge, but you do know that he is fairly tight. Using the agression number after so few hands is dangerous, especially when looking at it for just one street. How many turns do you think he has played? Probably only 10-15.

I agree w/ what Westley said for the most part, although if 2 more overs, or an A or K spade come I may lay it down if the villian does not slow down...w/ that being said, the way it was played I believe is a clear fold... there isn't a hand in the deck that he played this way that you have beat at this point.... for all we know he slowplayed AA preflop, or like you said, he doesn't raise nearly enough preflop and he may have a set of J's.... I think it's a fold

[Brom]

The way you played it it looks like he has you beat. Seems most likely he has a hand containing a Jack. What was the point of your flop 3-bet?

If you are going to play it that way (3-bet flop, lead turn) the information you gained is leaning heavy towards fold. If you didn't want to be put in this tough situation, you should have just called down (if you think he'll bluff enough). If you wanted more fold equity, then just call his flop raise and checkraise the turn maybe (folding to a 3-bet I think).

[DeeJ]

meh he could be pushing at you with as little as a flush draw, but mostly I think he's got you with AJ. Or 77. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'd hate to fold it but I think here I would.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
meh he could be pushing at you with as little as a flush draw, but mostly I think he's got you with AJ. Or 77. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'd hate to fold it but I think here I would.

[/ QUOTE ]

To this list I would add KK, AA. In any event, it takes a special villain to raise the flop and turn with a draw (given your clearly defined hand range). He stats do not point to that type of villain.

Hero is invariably beaten here and folding to the turn raise seems appropriate. Villian played it well.