AA raise the river?

newhizzle · #1 12-01-2005, 05:59 PM

villain is 21/14/1.5 and a regular in the 50 game, the only note i really have on him is "c/r bluffs the turn" but that dosent even really apply here, anyway he dosent seem to get out of line too often

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...

WillyTrailer · #2 12-01-2005, 06:04 PM

I'd raise it.

-WT

#3 12-01-2005, 06:22 PM

I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

RED_RAIN · #4 12-01-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

#5 12-01-2005, 06:48 PM

Raise this river, call a three bet.

Given the PF action and the action on the flop, we know Q10 is possible but unlikely. Raise the river, and I would just call a three bet, because I dont like capping in this spot without the nuts.

Tex

MarkD · #6 12-01-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be way out to lunch here but villian's play, on every street, is quite consistent with QT, probably QTs. It is also quite consistent with KK, JJ, and 99. Although KK may not have bet the flop so I think it is the least likely.

I guess the only debatable street for QT is pre-flop but hero open raised from teh CO which is a steal. QT would certainly play here and may occasionaly raise, and I think he would be right to raise occasionaly and is certainly right to play the hand. I don't know how you can totally dismiss QT here.

Lmn55d · #7 12-01-2005, 07:08 PM

hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.

#8 12-01-2005, 07:27 PM

I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.

Tex

RED_RAIN · #9 12-01-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.

Tex

[/ QUOTE ]

How you think a guy with these stats has QTo or QTs is really making me wonder. I'd like to change my answer to he has AK.

#10 12-01-2005, 07:38 PM

I said that it is unlikely but not out of the question. The PF raise could be viewed as a steal, which would make opponent correct to re-raise and 10+10 hand PF.

And to take what you said, the guy has stats that would indicate that he either has a set or the nuts given his action.

Therefore, I find it correct to raise this river and just call a three bet.

Any questions???

Tex

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