Late MTT Blind Stealing ?

[Padster]

$300 freezeout. Down to 33 runners (from 220 starters). Top 20 paid $600, top 10 paid the real money. I qualified in a sat so either is a result but am looking for final table place.

I have been playing a very tight game, only ever showing down hands. Not lost a showdown. Folded to blind steals and not attempted any blind steals myself, even from button.
I have been in the top 10 places for the last hour or so and have nursed my stack, dwindling from 5th to around 18th.

Blinds T500/T1000. I have T18k. Due to the nursing I have not played a hand for 30 minutes and haven't moved tables so viewed as a rock.

In sb I have 56s. Folded round to me, which is unusual, normally a stab is made somewhere. bb has T7k in addition to the bb he's paid. He's also played tight but had shoved to 2 previous blind steals in last 20 mins and has taken both down without showdown.

OK my thinking is that I need to start accumulating chips again and see this as an opportunity.

My play was to shove denying the bb the opp to reraise me.

My question is twofold....

1) was this just a plain stupid play given I was risking 40% of my stack to win <10% and I had a whole round to pick a better hand to do it?

2) Given the decision to steal is made, is a 2.5 -> 3 x bb raise a stronger play?


I guess in addition I'm also asking what the general view is in the late stages of MTT's. I have a nursable stack that will get me to around the bubble so a shout of some money, only needing a hand or two to finish in the money. But taking this approach very much relies on getting a couple of real hands paid to stand any chance of a final table place.

Is the right play to sit tight and hope for a hand on the basis that sometimes it comes sometimes it doesn't, or should I be trying to move up a gear here and gamble for a high finish (givena high finish is what I'm after). Have I just chosen the wrong hand to do that and / or started moving too early?

[Jeremy517]

Putting him all-in with any two is pretty standard here.

[flyingmoose]

He would need a very loose calling range for this to be a bad push.

To answer your general question: you should ALWAYS be looking for spots to accumulate chips in tournaments with frontloaded prize structures.

[mshalen]

If you follow Harrington's M Theory the BB is under 5 and may push with any two decent cards especially given he sees an obvious steal attempt and a chance to double up. A 65s in not a strong hand if you get called so why not try to be a little sneaky and maybe save a lot of chips if it doesn't go your way?

In these situations SOMETIMES I will just call (cost 500 chips). If the BB has a hand he will/may push and you can get away with a small cost. If the BB has nothing he will be very happy to play for free. When the flop comes make a pot size bet (2,000). If he doesn't have anything he will fold if he hit it he will push.

Under this method if the BB caught a hand you only lose 2,500 rather than 7,000 and if he doesn't catch a hand you still win the blinds. Also this doesn't look like a blind steal just that you caught good on the flop and you can keep your rock rep.

[Padster]

The problem I have with that approach is that the bb doesn't need a hand to shove if I only limp. It's almost an auto shove pf given his low M and the fact that a rock has shown weakness by limping.

Given the high likelihood of his shove I then effectively will need to actually win the hand to take the chips, and my hand's certain to be a dog.

At least by shoving first I have some fold equity.

Anyway, the reason this hand got me thinking was that he called with 99 and it held up, taking me down to cT10k and down to 30th out of 33 left. 3 hands later I picked up JJ and shoved (M6)and was called and beaten by AJ from a medium stack (T15k).

No complaints on that score but I was thinking that if I'd held off the steal bluff I'd have naturally played the JJ differently and would have had more options being a larger stack - AJ possibly less likely to call a raise than a short stack shove, A came on turn so possible to win on flop, I can maybe get away from the hand etc.

So what I'm wondering is if mixing it up against a short stack who could damage my stack to the tune of 40% if called, when I am certain to be a dog if called is just plain dumb, not only for the hand itself (marginal either way I think) but for the damage it will do in later situations as I will be forced into a shove situation the next hand I choose to play.

Is that something that I need to be considering more fully or should I just focus on each hand as it comes and look to maximise my opportunites hand by hand and let the chips take care of themselves? (can't wait for AA to play a handand all that)

It's pretty standard to push in this situation, given your table image. However, if you are really worried about losing chips, you can complete and play the flop accordingly. If he raises pre-flop (which he should with any reasonable two), you can muck your hand, if you don't like it.

[rockythecat99]

Don't shove. That looks like a standard steal. BB is calling here with any playable hand. If you are going to steal a short stack raise him a normal raise 3-4xbb. He will get the message of "I have a good hand and I don't mind you calling your stack off". I don't like a push here.

[JustPlayingSmart]

You're being results oriented here. I would be shoving a lot of hands in this spot, and many times I would be shoving any 2. If you really wanted the big payday, you should love getting in your chips with JJ vs AJ. You're a huge favorite to double up, and you just aren't going to find better spots than this very often. Bad luck is difficult to overcome in tournament poker.