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  #11  
Old 07-29-2005, 10:50 AM
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

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I make this play often, but I rarely do it with a hand as strong as AQ with a Q939 board and a diamond draw. I would have pushed on the turn, hoping to get called by KQ or QJ or a mid pair. If the guy had a nine - he would win a big pot and I would be ok with that.

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there's no piece of advice regularly given out by inexperienced SSNL players on this board that annoys me more than "push and hope".

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Thanks for the feedback. I guess I agree with you Swolfe. The reason I played the hand the way I did is b/c I DIDN'T want to be all in with just TPTK.

I think the advantages of this play is that I don't get outplayed on the turn to a bluff and I will induce more bluffs/calls by second bests on the river.

On another hand I played like this (I've only had the opportunity to play 2 like this) I had Qh 9h on the button. Normally wouldn't even play this, but I'm trying to get more sophisicated with my NL game, esp button play. Flop comes 2c 9c 7c and it is checked to me. I bet out the pot for $4 and am called by MP. Turn is Kd and MP checs to me. Normally I bet there, but I had a hunch the MP was going check raise me on a bluff and I felt like I had the best hand so I check behind in order to keep the pot small enough that I could call a bet on the river (assuming nothing too scary, of course). The river was a harmless 3d (2c 9c 7c Kd 3d). I felt like I had the best hand, because I felt like a pair of kings would bet the turn. Anyway with only $12 in the pot (since I made a conscious effort to keept it that way) they guy bets $6 into me. I felt pretty comfortable calling $6 into what was now an $18 pot. Turns out the guy had Jd 8d. I can't believe he called the flop with just a gut shot on a board with 3 clubs. I'm sure he was looking to take it away from me on the turn, which I would have obviously had to give him had I bet the turn. Also, my check of the turn induced his small bluff on the river.

Like I said, I've only done this play twice so far, but it seems like it might be real successful in the long run. I'm just sick and tired of being check raised all the time on the turn and having to lay down what I think is probably the best hand. But I'm not real comfortable with the play either. Any thoughtful challenges to the play or suggested changes would be very welcome.
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  #12  
Old 07-29-2005, 10:53 AM
Ghazban Ghazban is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

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perfectly played, IMO. there's no reason to bet the turn.

when he checks again on the river, you know you have him. it'd have to be a very tricky (or dumb) opponent who would check a 9 or full house twice.

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I don't often disagree with you but I do here. The weak lead on the flop is often a draw trying to price itself in. I like OP's raise here. Now when the turn doesn't complete the draw, I like to bet to again charge what I feel is likely a draw for my opponent. If I get checkraised on the turn, I'm folding. I don't think players at this level will weak-lead/call the flop, then checkraise semibluff the turn with anything I can beat. Then I check behind on almost all rivers (I'd probably bet a Q river on this board hoping to get a crying call from a badly played 9 or other underfull).

So, in short, I like raise flop, bet turn (1/2 pot), check behind on river best as it charges the draws but never puts me in a spot where I have to make a tough decision (as I might have to if I check the turn and face a big bet/checkraise on the river)
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  #13  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:04 AM
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

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OK I'm uncomfortable disagreeing with swolfe but here goes...


Your flop raise is spot on and I totally agree with your flop reads (also AKd is a poss which has K as a danger card).

To me the villain check on the turn is standard. He's always going to do that. He either wants the c/r or the free card. He certainly doesn't want to call a bet.

So then you're really into what do you think he's more likely to have? the 9 was a good card as it makes 99 unlikely. You have a Q so for a set he is most likely to have have 33. he could also have KK. So only 2 hands that you're really worried about vs a fair few of hands he could have (ie flush draw).

You can be pretty comfortable you're ahead and that he's drawing.

Therefore you have to bet out. The check is dangerous and weak in my view. when the hand is shown down at the end the other players will see your turn play and be able to block bet their draws in future against you.

If villain raises your turn bet you have to fold. And villain probably doesn't call if drawing. If he does call then the river is checked down (or call his value bet depending on size).

Given the way you actually played the turn I think your river bet is fine.

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I guess this was my problem though. After the flop there is about $60 in the pot and I have about $60 in my stack and Villain has me barely covered. To bet the turn I probably have to bet 1/2 pot of $30. If I'm raised here it would be to $60 which would put me all in. With my 30 the 60 raise and the 60 in the pot there is $150 in the pot. Can I really fold to a C/R on the turn when I'm being laid 5 to 1? Certainly I would have to call right? But the thing is that I really don't want to committ my whole stack to just TPTK. So I checked the turn in order to keep the pot small (maybe I misunderstand the concept of controlling pot size, so help me wth that). I knew that I would have to call any moderate bet on the river since I showed weakness. Anyway, it is exactly the turn play that I wonder about. To bet 30 seems to be committing my whole stack to this hand if I get raised. Am I wrong? And is there a better way to do this?
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  #14  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:19 AM
swolfe swolfe is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

i'm revising my answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i didn't read carefully enough and missed the diamond draw. i had read it as diamonds showing up with the turn 9...don't ask me how because on rereading, it's pretty clear.

i need to think about this some more. my intuition tells me that check here is better because the pot is already big and any bet i make ought to be a push. i don't want to leave myself $30 on a diamond river with a $120 pot. i don't like backing TPTK with my stack without a good read.

if he's on a draw, he has probably ~20% equity. if not he probably either has 4% or 96%, which we'll estimate as 0 and 100. his total equity has to be less than 33% to make betting correct because 2:1 is the worst odds we can lay him.

Eq = %drawing*.2 + %made hand winning

How often is he drawing? How often is he beating us? These are read dependant, but if we say 50 and 25 then his equity is about 35%.

I think it's close either way and in the end probably doesn't matter. Checking is probably lower variance because you can value bet if the river blanks and fold if it doesn't.
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  #15  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:31 AM
Padster Padster is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

yes i agree your stack size is causing a problem here.

But I think a turn bet of $40 is ok. He's not getting drawing odds for his flush. If he shoves that bet then I'm still folding it. He's saying he has a set and so you're drawing dead so save you last $20

yes he might be bluffing but at the end of the day if a player's going to rep the nuts the first time I meet him he's definitely going to get a fold from me. You have no reason to think he'd be bluffing.

He's far more likely to shove the flop to a semi bluff than the turn as he has a lot more fold equity on the flop (and more chances to draw).


You don't need to be play scared about running into the nuts. If you happen to have a big hand while someone has the nuts then it will cost you no question - but even here it wont stack you. And you do have a big hand here given that board.

I think the key thing for me is that he's far more likely to be drawing than laying a trap.

Also think of it from his view. You raised PF. You bet the Q high flop and turn despite his bet into you on the flop. You are clearly stating you have at least the Q. If he actually bluffs you here not knowing you then he's probably a lunatic and that will become apparent soon enough. So you'll probably get your money back.

Players will only make bluffs if they think you will fold else what's the point. He has no reaon to think you will fold to a shove (despite the fact I'm saying I would if I don't know the player - ie I think most players at this table wouldn't fold to the shove).

Also presumably he doesnt know you either so again why would he risk you taking his stack by calling his bluff?

I just don't see him shoving any hand that's not already ahead. And even KK (the realistic worst hand he could be ahead with) you should be folding to (5 outs for you).
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  #16  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:32 AM
swolfe swolfe is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

another thing is that i would often make this same flop raise/turn check with a diamond draw or JT. it's more harmonious with that play for me to check behind other hands here.

also, we'll have a much better idea of our equity once we see the river.

would KQ call a turn push?
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  #17  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:38 AM
amoeba amoeba is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

villains underbet on the flop does look like a flush draw.

alternatively you could try something like raise to $12 on the flop (you are still charging him incorrect odds for the draw as its $9 to call in to a $35 pot for a 1 card flush).

then pot on turn is $44, you bet 1/2 pot.

I don't do this very often but from a theory perspective without regard for metagame it makes sense.
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  #18  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:45 AM
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

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another thing is that i would often make this same flop raise/turn check with a diamond draw or JT. it's more harmonious with that play for me to check behind other hands here.




That's the thing, I felt like he didn't want to call the flop bet of 20. When he first bet 3, I thought maybe a draw, but he hesitated and then called the 20. I was pretty sure at that point that he had a good Q, most likely K-Q. Anyway, I figured he was good enough to fold a draw OOP to a bet of 20. So then I figured he either had me crushed and was looking to milk me by getting me to commit on the turn, or I had him crushed. Thus, I checked the turn. Let me emphasize this again. After the flop call, I was real sure he didn't have the diamond draw. That's why I didn't mention it after the flop in my original post, which I didn't realize and I probably should have. And, I don't think he would have called a push on the turn, but who knows.
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  #19  
Old 07-29-2005, 11:54 AM
Padster Padster is offline
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

If you're pretty confident he's not on a draw and either has a Q or a set then you surely still have to bet it? The check still gives a free card. You can't like any K, J, T?

Another danger the turn check has is it now hands him fold equity if he shoves the river which now becomes a more viable option. Now your range of possible holdings in his eyes has widened to include AK, JJ, TT, 99(?poss lower) AJ(?) all of which he's beating.

Do you call a river shove following your turn check?
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  #20  
Old 07-29-2005, 12:05 PM
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Default Re: TPTK, controlling the pot size question

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If you're pretty confident he's not on a draw and either has a Q or a set then you surely still have to bet it? The check still gives a free card. You can't like any K, J, T?

Another danger the turn check has is it now hands him fold equity if he shoves the river which now becomes a more viable option. Now your range of possible holdings in his eyes has widened to include AK, JJ, TT, 99(?poss lower) AJ(?) all of which he's beating.

Do you call a river shove following your turn check?

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No I don't call an all in on the river. But I might call up to $40 and definitely call $35 or less. And any K, J, or 10 on the river, and I check the river. Any real big bet on the river, I fold. Like I said, I'm not necessarily comfortable with this play and it goes against my normal apply pressure, more pressure, and more pressure style. I'm just playing around with it, and I really appreciate everyone's feedback.
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