River fold?

sweet wicking action · #1 11-27-2005, 05:58 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

The SB has been playing TAG, the BB seems fairly loose, and MP2 is new to the table this hand. Regardless of my poor play before the river, what do people think of my fold? Any advice is appreciated. Thanks.

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

I fail to raise preflop, mostly because I am distracted by clumsily spilling things on myself and my desk.

Flop: (4 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

I check the flop through, probably because I'm unecessarily wary, and don't think I have any fold equity.

Turn: (2 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

I only call, planning to raise when someone leads on a friendly river (no aces or flush cards).

River: (6 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Was this a bad fold? Should it be an easy call?

#2 11-27-2005, 06:18 PM

I think I would go ahead and raise the turn.

As played, I think the river is a pretty easy fold, the pot is small and we only have one pair.

SNOWBALL138 · #3 11-27-2005, 06:22 PM

Assuming that SB call the river raise, our hand needs to be good 16 percent of the time to break even. I think your hand is good maybe 25 percent of the time.

There are a few reasons why you want to fold, but I don't think that they add up to 84 percent confidence.

1.The pot isn't huge.
2. MP2's raise seems to show a lot of strength
3. If you call, you might get repopped by the SB
4. You have to beat 2 players
5. MP2 played this exactly like he just made a flush

I've never played KQo like this before. If you raised preflop, and raised the turn, the river would play a lot easier.

Not raising the turn is terrible.

SNOWBALL138 · #4 11-27-2005, 06:46 PM

The pot is 9BB and sb almost always calls here, so its really 10bb or so. Hero only needs to be good 16.6% of the time here. I think hero is good more than 20 percent of the time. Probably between 20-25%

deetle · #5 11-27-2005, 09:43 PM

I agree we are ahead of SB but with MP waking up on the river I think we are toast. with the action I don't think we are good as many times as you do

silkyslim · #6 11-27-2005, 10:19 PM

i really really dont like how you played this hand. you need to raise preflop. KQo is still a strong hand and you have the button!!! go ahead and bet on the flop. you do have fold equity for some players, which could buy you outs. You have two overs and a backdoor. If not, raise that turn! you hit your freaking money card. The river would play differently. I dont think this is a bad river fold

BWebb · #7 11-27-2005, 10:54 PM

Looks like you are aware, but you should raise preflop. On the flop, I'd check. On an 986 double suited board, there are a lot of draws possible so I don't think you are going to buy the pot. You HAVE to raise the turn. Waiting for a safe card is not good. If they do have a draw, they won't pay you off on the river if they miss. You have to make them get the money in when you are ahead. I like the fold on the river, I doubt he decided to wait until the river to raise a hand that you beat.

bobhalford · #8 11-27-2005, 10:55 PM

Gotta raise this hand before the flop hits! Can't comment on the hand as it would have played differently postflop had you raised.

W. Deranged · #9 11-27-2005, 11:10 PM

1. It is very important for anyone reading this thread (though the OP seems to get the point) that raising pre-flop behind an MP poster/checker is automatic here. We certainly have a better hand than the MP player and need to pressure the blinds. The extra money in the pot makes this raise even more worthwhile.

2. I see no reason to bet the flop given the way the hand was played pre-flop . This is certainly not an automatic bet at every table if you had raised and gotten four callers, though if you did have the initiative and you thought there was any chance a bet would take the pot down or fold some better (A-high, small pair) hands, then betting is best.

3. You should raise the turn. Waiting until a safe river really doesn't make sense here. This is the key discussion for this hand:

Waiting until the turn when you have a good but vulnerable hand often makes sense on the flop. The reason we do it there is because often our equity on the flop can be very suspect and the presence of a safe turn card will greatly increase/clarify our equity, and we get to force our opponents to put in double bets instead of single bets. Note that there are two very important distinctions between "waiting for a safe turn" and "waiting for a safe river."

a. On the flop, a hand like top pair-good kicker often will not have a huge equity edge against the field, largely because there are two cards left to see. On the turn, though, the equity of made hands is often much clearer, primarily because we only have one card left to see. Since our hand's equity is generally plenty clear by the turn, it makes more sense to go ahead and raise immediately to generate value from hands (like draws) that are willing to put in money on the turn but not on the river unless they hit.

b. The size of the bets between the turn and the river doesn't change. This seems like a trivial point, but it's not. One of the reasons we wait for the turn sometimes is because we get more value on the turn bets. Since turn and river bets are the same size this is not a consideration.

The times that "waiting for a safe river" is generally advisable are usually (in my opinion):

a. When the pot is heads-up
b. You have a hand that is worth more than 2 BB total for the turn and the river, but probably not 4 BB total; hence, you wait to raise the river because you don't want to have to call down a turn-three-bet/river bet and/or because you are more comfortable folding to a river three-bet than to a turn three-bet. (This idea was cited in the late Mid-High forum as "waiting until the river to save bets").

I'm certainly missing a lot here and I'd love to see a more thorough conversation about situations where it's best to "wait for the river".

4. River fold I think is standard, as we only have one pair, the pot is pretty small, and the 4-way nature of the pot means the pot is quite protected and it's unlikely that an opponent is trying to run an audacious bluff/promo. raise. I would only call here if you have a sound read on the MP player which indicates a tendency to raise marginal hands on the river.

BWebb · #10 11-27-2005, 11:17 PM

Deranged, I think you can cut and paste most of this and put it in krimson's QJ post. Great stuff.