AKs vs. a lot of queens

[mr pink]

Taggish villain open raises utg, i 3-bet AKs of spades on the button, everyone folds, he calls, hu to the flop for 10.33 sbs

flop is Qs X X rainbow

he checks, i bet, he raises, i call.

turn is another Q

at this point the possibility that he was floating one on me on the flop becomes much more prevalent, at least in my mind. i have him pegged for either a total bluff, underpair - 99, TT, JJ at this point, or trip queens

he bets, i call.

river is the case queen

he bets, and i call.

yeah?

[Kyle]

I like a fold here on the turn. Considering the villian's range of hands the only thing you beat is a AK,AJ,and maybe A10 all of which it is unlikely he has played this way. I think he showed JJ-88 and his hand was good.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a fold here on the turn. Considering the villian's range of hands the only thing you beat is a AK,AJ,and maybe A10 all of which it is unlikely he has played this way. I think he showed JJ-88 and his hand was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

well on the turn i'm:

drawing live (6 outs) against JJ-99 - 18 combos

drawing dead to AQ - 6 combos

tied with AK - 9 combos

and ahead of AJ and ATs - 15 combos

i'm on the phone long distance while i'm typing this up and really gotta go. but if you do a weighed average, i think i have enough outs to continue to see the river.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
well on the turn i'm:

drawing live (6 outs) against JJ-99 - 18 combos

drawing dead to AQ - 6 combos

tied with AK - 9 combos

and ahead of AJ and ATs - 15 combos


[/ QUOTE ]

A) Any reason you arent counting KQo/KQs, and some will raise QJs here.

B) Answer my damn PM about the Paul McCartney concert: HOW MANY ARE YOU BRINING??? I need answers Mr Pink. And I need them soon!!



EDIT: also, you cant just do a strict analyis like that, because you arent weighting things. IE. He takes that line more often with AQ or TT than with AJ.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
A) Any reason you arent counting KQo/KQs, and some will raise QJs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

cause i'm an idiot and suck at math?

[ QUOTE ]
B) Answer my damn PM about the Paul McCartney concert: HOW MANY ARE YOU BRINING??? I need answers Mr Pink. And I need them soon!!

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad. i'm on it. hippie stoner potheads are hard to get organized.

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: also, you cant just do a strict analyis like that, because you arent weighting things. IE. He takes that line more often with AQ or TT than with AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh... help me out on this? i mean if you're not too busy.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
my bad. i'm on it. hippie stoner potheads are hard to get organized.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully soon! Tickets are expensive now. I dont want them to get astronomical! (Keep in mind, one of us is buying for his imaginary girlfriend)


[ QUOTE ]
uhhh... help me out on this? i mean if you're not too busy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Techincally speaking, Im a pro poker player. Which translates to "I dont have a job." On top of that, Im on vacation right now. I think I can manage some time [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Well, here's the thing... (and I notice this a lot)...

Preflop, we have an EP TAG raise, and he calls your 3-bet.

Now, if I say his range is: any two cards, that sounds absurd right? Of course. Because we arent using the inforation we've been given.

It is much better to say his range is: 99-JJ + AQ-AT + KQ (Lets just assume from here on that those are the only hands he can have, though that is clearly wrong)


Well, after he check raises you on the flop, if you dont adjust his range, you are making the same mistake as what is in bold, above.


We have information on a new street, which has to be incorporated into his range. For example, even if AQ and AJ were likely in a ratio of 12:6 = 2:1 (or whatever, I didnt look it up) BEFORE the flop action, it doesnt mean they are AFTER the flop action. Because, AQ is more likely to check raise than flop than AJ.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Just saw Ish explain it better. Since you know certain hands are less likely now, you need to adjust mathematically somehow.

You could do it by taking percentages for each of the different hands (how likely he would take that line with the hand) or you could just be sloppy like me and change the combos. Taking your other post:

[ QUOTE ]

drawing live (6 outs) against JJ-99 - 18 combos

drawing dead to AQ - 6 combos

tied with AK - 9 combos

and ahead of AJ and ATs - 15 combos



[/ QUOTE ]

6 outs vs. JJ-99 - 18 combos

Very likely he would play these hands like this. We'll leave it at 18.

Dead vs. AQ - 6 combos

Very likely. He could also play something like KQ this way. I'll bump it up to 10.

Tied with AK - 9 combos

Somewhat less likely. Bump it down to 6.

AJ, ATs - 15 combos

Pretty unlikely. I'm bumping down to 6.

So this leaves you with:

6 outs - 18 combos
0 outs - 10
Tie - 6
Ahead - 6

Not the prettiest way to do it but it would give you a better idea.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont want them to get astronomical! (Keep in mind, one of us is buying for his imaginary girlfriend)


[/ QUOTE ]

how imaginary are we talkin here?

[ QUOTE ]
Well, here's the thing... (and I notice this a lot)...

Preflop, we have an EP TAG raise, and he calls your 3-bet.

Now, if I say his range is: any two cards, that sounds absurd right? Of course. Because we arent using the inforation we've been given.

It is much better to say his range is: 99-JJ + AQ-AT + KQ (Lets just assume from here on that those are the only hands he can have, though that is clearly wrong)


Well, after he check raises you on the flop, if you dont adjust his range, you are making the same mistake as what is in bold, above.


We have information on a new street, which has to be incorporated into his range. For example, even if AQ and AJ were likely in a ratio of 12:6 = 2:1 (or whatever, I didnt look it up) BEFORE the flop action, it doesnt mean they are AFTER the flop action. Because, AQ is more likely to check raise than flop than AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

but AQ is also less likely hand for the villain given the 2nd queen on the turn. so how much do you incorporate that into the weighing of outs? meh... i need to get to sleep. long days in this heat are killing me.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
how imaginary are we talkin here?

[/ QUOTE ]

JoshuaD's girlfriend type imaginary. Magic player's girlfriend type imaginary. Dungeons and Dragaons player's girlfriend type imaginary.


[ QUOTE ]
but AQ is also less likely hand for the villain given the 2nd queen on the turn. so how much do you incorporate that into the weighing of outs? meh... i need to get to sleep. long days in this heat are killing me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most certainly.

To see out many outs you have, you have to write out what is in his range, how many combos there are, and how often you expect him to CR the flop with it. Then, add them all together to get your outs.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont want them to get astronomical! (Keep in mind, one of us is buying for his imaginary girlfriend)


[/ QUOTE ]

how imaginary are we talkin here?

[/ QUOTE ]

CallMeIshmael imagines that Courtney Love is at times hot enough to want to f[/i]uck her. So, his imagination is f[/i]ucked up.

CallMeIshmael (6:16:53 PM): there are times
CallMeIshmael (6:17:00 PM): in the courntey love time line
CallMeIshmael (6:17:09 PM): that i would bang her (if she werent a skank)
CallMeIshmael (6:17:16 PM): and, i know many disagree with me there
jason_t (6:17:31 PM): the whole fu[/i]cking planet
CallMeIshmael (6:17:34 PM): lol
CallMeIshmael (6:17:50 PM): well
CallMeIshmael (6:17:58 PM): with teh exception of all those she has banged
CallMeIshmael (6:18:01 PM): RIP
jason_t (6:18:08 PM): poor bastards
CallMeIshmael (6:18:09 PM): [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
CallMeIshmael (6:18:52 PM): for example
CallMeIshmael (6:18:57 PM): in the celebrity skin video
CallMeIshmael (6:19:01 PM): she is doable
jason_t (6:19:21 PM): (not having seen the video) then there is no way it's her