BB/100 expectation in long run, winning players

jonahmavesin · #1 02-08-2004, 01:19 AM

Hey guys, I know this is in 1000 places on this site, but I'm coming up empty.

What's the hourly expectation (range) of a winning player online, measured in BB/100 hands?

Thanks......

Vehn · #2 02-08-2004, 01:29 AM

above zero

Nottom · #3 02-08-2004, 01:30 AM

I'd say a good player should probably be in the 2-3 range after you get out of the micro-limits.

Note: if a "good" player can win 1BB/hour in a B&M cardroom dealing about 30 hands/hour then if they get 50+ hands/hour, a smaller rake, and no toking online it should likely put them right in that range.

Nottom · #4 02-08-2004, 01:31 AM

I was about to go there but actually decided to answer his question instead ... guess I'm just a chump.

jonahmavesin · #5 02-08-2004, 02:32 AM

Heh... With this question on this board, I get one serious response, and one roast. Not too bad, all considered! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyway, just to follow up - wouldn't that be 2-3 BB/hour, hence the meaningfulness of the 50+ vs. 30 hands/hours figure? But over 100 hands, you would expect more like triple the B&M rate, plus bonus for no toking, low rake, etc. Right? So wouldn't you be looking for 3-4+ online? I'm strictly speaking BB/100 right now.

I say this only because I'm beginning to get into long run figures now in PokerTracker (6000 hands at 1/2) and I'm at 4.7BB/100... So I'm just eager to know what others' benchmarks have been. I fully expect to fall back, just curious how much.

JTG51 · #6 02-08-2004, 03:00 AM

I've got good news and bad news for you.

First the good news. 4.7 BB/100 hands is definitely sustainable over the long run.

Now the bad news. Your 6000 hands doesn't put you anywhere near the long run. The long run isn't even in sight for you yet.

skaboomizzy · #7 02-08-2004, 03:31 AM

Honest question... what is the long run? 30,000 hands? More?

ZeeJustin · #8 02-08-2004, 03:38 AM

It's important to distinguish between full tables and short handed tables. A winning player equally skilled at both will typically have a larger BB / 100 at a table with less players involved.

JTG51 · #9 02-08-2004, 03:38 AM

It really depends on your SD. The lower your SD, the fewer hands you need to have a good estimate of your win rate.

For B&M play 2,000 hours is a decent rule of thumb. That translates to about 60,000 hands.

Nottom · #10 02-08-2004, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, just to follow up - wouldn't that be 2-3 BB/hour, hence the meaningfulness of the 50+ vs. 30 hands/hours figure? But over 100 hands, you would expect more like triple the B&M rate, plus bonus for no toking, low rake, etc. Right? So wouldn't you be looking for 3-4+ online? I'm strictly speaking BB/100 right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was more along the lines of:

A B&M player will play 100 hands in about 3 hours and he will earn 3BB in that time. Tack on another portion or so for lower rake and no toke and I guess you are at about 4BB/100.

Hmm, I guess I'm done so I never really needed that 50+ number. Plus my number got bigger, guess I should have just done that the first time. Mines somewhere in that area for 3/6, but I still don't have enough data behind it to really make it worth too much.