TT: Folded in the right spot?

[JEM7VSBL]

MP1: 25/13.1/2.37
CO: 28.2/15.1/1.93

stats on each after a few hundred hands...

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: JEM is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">JEM 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, JEM calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">JEM raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, JEM calls.

Turn: (11.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, JEM checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, MP1 calls, JEM folds.

River: (13.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 15.20 BB

should i have called the turn here with my overpair, or was the fold correct here given the preflop and flop action?

[jt1]

I couldn't fold an overpair against those numbers

[Pokey]

On the turn, you've got more scare cards than I can count. (OK, so I can't count very high.)

10 diamonds
3 aces
3 kings
3 queens
3 jacks
2 nines
3 eights
2 sevens
3 sixes
2 fives
2 fours
3 threes

Any of these 39(!) cards and you could be totally sunk, even if you're not ALREADY sunk.

What makes CO cap the preflop, three-bet the flop, and bet this turn? A high pocket pair, AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Anything else and this behavior is hard to understand. Remember you're seeing all this aggression out of a player with a 1.93 agg level -- that's not a maniac, it's a SLAP. He's supposed to quiet down by now if he doesn't have something worth shouting about.

I think you folded it in the perfect spot. In fact, I think you played this just right:

3-bet the PF to go heads up with a high pair, calling when it doesn't work.
Raise the flop to bump out the diamond draw, calling when it doesn't work.
Dump the turn when the horror is realized.

The only alternative in my mind is to bet the turn card to represent a diamond, expecting to fold to a raise. Still, I don't think you're likely to scare many players away with this bluff unless their WSD% is very low.

You done good. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Michael Emery]

I dont like the flop raise at all. Despite the fact that you have an overpair its quite likely its no good. I'd call the flop bet, grit my teeth and call the raise, and then let it go on the turn like you did.

Mike Emery

[Michael Emery]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop to bump out the diamond draw, calling when it doesn't work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post Pokey. I'm just curious however, dont you think its just asking to get three bet by one of the two? I think its just too likely your far behind here already. Aren't you just throwing good money after bad trying to get a diamond to fold when your already beat here in most instances given the action?

Mike Emery

[Klepton]

good raise on the flop to see where you're at, the only hand you beat that 3-bets there is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which now beats you on the turn

good laydown on the turn

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious however, dont you think its just asking to get three bet by one of the two? I think its just too likely your far behind here already. Aren't you just throwing good money after bad trying to get a diamond to fold when your already beat here in most instances given the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop is crap, though. 7-4-9 two-suited? With a capped preflop, it's entirely likely that nobody likes this much. With your raise, you're giving CO 15.4:2 odds, or 7.7:1 odds on a draw. We both know that a two-flush has odds to call here, but it would discourage the inside straight draws.

On a tangential note, I find that raises hold mystical power over low-limit tables. A player that will call one bet all day and all night suddenly slows down and thinks hard about folding to two. For some reason, two bets (even on the flop) just freak out low-limit passive players, and they tend to run for the hills with even decent hands. I guess that's the "monsters under the bed" syndrome at work. Anyways, I find raising pays great dividends over time.

I guess I'm overly optimistic, but I don't think the flop is that scary for Hero: he's got an overpair to a pretty safe board, considering the preflop action. The turn's a different story, and even from my optimistic point of view, I think it's time to say goodbye when CO bets.

As to the risk of getting three-bet: while that's a drawback, it is one with a strong silver lining. When CO makes it three, you've learned a great deal about where you actually stand in this hand, and it makes folding the turn even easier. Without knowing how strongly CO likes his hand, I might be tempted to continue with the hand if the turn isn't as scary as this one. Mind you, in this situation and in hindsight, the flop raise might have proven unneccessary, but a "safer" turn card might make it hard to escape this hand for one bet on the turn. I see it as spending small bets to save big bets. The 1 BB on the flop saves you 2.5 big bets on the flop (since CO still raises), turn, and river when the board doesn't look this ugly but you're still dogmeat.

[PokerProdigy]

Seems like the right play to me because of the preflop and flop action.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
We both know that a two-flush has odds to call here, but it would discourage the inside straight draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has an inside straight draw with that board? The guy who open raised then lead into a capper or the guy who capped preflop?

[CallMeIshmael]

nice hand.