Craps -Passline and Odds bets - Worth It?

lostinspace · #1 12-27-2004, 02:16 AM

In Sklansky's book "Getting the best of it" he claims casino craps CANNOT be beat. That it always yeilds a negative expectation. Other authors claim that according to the laws of probabiltiy if you ONLY make the passline and odds bets you gain an advantage.

Is this true?

Can some one explain in simple mathematical terms why the passline and odds bets are positive (or negative )expectation plays?

Thanks

playersare · #2 12-27-2004, 02:46 AM

the passline carries a house edge of 1.41%.

taking free odds behind the passline will average the house edge down from 1.41% closer to zero, but it will never actually hit zero or become player positive, because you still have your original passline bet giving the house their 1.41%.

the people who are craps advantage players are so because they can supposedly control their dice throwing to avoid 7's after the point is made. it is conceivable that this physical skill can be practiced enough to perhaps nullify the house edge, or even overcome it, but probably not by much.

by only playing passline with odds, an advantage roller has the least amount of house edge to go against. every other bet on the craps table has an edge of more than 1.41%, some as high as 16.67%. no bionic arm would be able to overcome that!

on mathematical fundamentals alone, however, craps is a guaranteed winner for the casino in the long run. if only they could find people under the age of 75 who still want to play...

Iceman · #3 12-27-2004, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In Sklansky's book "Getting the best of it" he claims casino craps CANNOT be beat. That it always yeilds a negative expectation. Other authors claim that according to the laws of probabiltiy if you ONLY make the passline and odds bets you gain an advantage.

Is this true?

Can some one explain in simple mathematical terms why the passline and odds bets are positive (or negative )expectation plays?

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/

Craps can't be beaten no matter what you bet on, but by betting the passline and taking maximum odds you can reduce the house advantage to very low levels. Follow the link for details.

other1 · #4 12-27-2004, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
on mathematical fundamentals alone, however, craps is a guaranteed winner for the casino in the long run. if only they could find people under the age of 75 who still want to play...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? Craps is my favorite non-poker casino game. Every time I'm at the tables at Borgata they are packed with young people.

Terry · #5 12-27-2004, 02:38 PM

Sklansky has it right. Any author who tells you different either doesn’t understand it himself or is trying to sell you a phony system.

Think about this way: You lose 14 cents by putting $10 on the Pass Line and nothing you do afterward can change that.

If you bet $10 on the Pass Line at a house advantage of 1.41% you expect to lose $10 * 0.014 = $0.14.

If you bet an additional $10 odds with no house advantage you expect to lose $20 * 0.007 = $0.14.

If you take double odds you expect to lose $30 * 0.004666 = $0.14.

No matter how much odds you take, you already lost 14 cents when you put down your Pass Line bet. Adding odds makes your loss a smaller percentage of a larger amount of money, but the dollar amount lost remains the same.

cardcounter0 · #6 12-27-2004, 06:09 PM

There is one bet on the craps table that has a player's advantage instead of a house advantage.

If you bet on Don't Come -- once a point is established -- your money is moved from the Don't Come box to the number.

You are laying even money that a number won't be rolled before a Seven. You have the advantage at this time.

If there is any interest, I can explain how you avoid the come-out roll on the Don't Come bet, and only have your money on the player advantage bet after the point is established.

Acesover8s · #7 12-27-2004, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is one bet on the craps table that has a player's advantage instead of a house advantage.

If you bet on Don't Come -- once a point is established -- your money is moved from the Don't Come box to the number.

You are laying even money that a number won't be rolled before a Seven. You have the advantage at this time.

If there is any interest, I can explain how you avoid the come-out roll on the Don't Come bet, and only have your money on the player advantage bet after the point is established.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, please explain this. I would also like you to explain exactly where you invest the millions of dollars you have made doing this.

cardcounter0 · #8 12-27-2004, 10:31 PM

"I would also like you to explain exactly where you invest the millions of dollars you have made doing this."

Okay, as soon as you explain to me exactly where you have invested all the BILLIONS of dollars you have made playing poker, since as everyone agrees, this is indeed a game that can be "beaten".

Actually, the craps player advantage play is something to keep an eye out for.

I used to spend a lot of times in casinos -- keeping track of VP jackpot levels for people so they knew when to hit the banks of machines, scouting out good blackjack games and conditions, finding out when certain 'special' dealers were working which games, checking out 'wongable' slot machines, etc., etc.

Or even the more mundane, going in to cash casino cash promotion mailers, hungry and burning some comps by going to a casino resturant, stopping by to check what the operation hours and number of players in the poker room, etc., etc.

So as long as I was in the casino, picking up a few bucks on the side hustling a craps advantage play seems to be a good thing. I mean, what do you do with your time in a casino while waiting to get that seat in the poker room? Play Keno?
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

lostinspace · #9 12-27-2004, 10:40 PM

Thanks for the replies. This will help (hopefully) settle a dispute with a friend who is under the misconception that with double or triple odds bets you can actually GAIN an advantage. It seems that you can only reduce the house edge to about even at best.

Thanks for taking the time to help. Happy New Year!!

cardcounter0 · #10 12-27-2004, 10:58 PM

No, you can't reduce it to even.

The passline bet has a house edge or "charge" on it. The odds are completely even. So by taking more and more odds, you are "diluting" the house edge, but you can't eliminate it.

Think of it this way. It costs you $5 in parking to go downtown and shop. Consider this $5 parking fee the "house edge" on shopping. Now if you go downtown, pay $5 to park, and buy $5 worth of stuff --- the parking fee edge is 100%! You can reduce this, say you go and buy $100 worth of stuff. Now the parking fee only represents a 5% charge on your shopping. But it doesn't matter, even you go and buy the whole store for a million bucks, you are still out the $5 for parking. You can't make it $0, no matter how much you buy. (and you can't reduce the house edge on your wagers to 0% or less, even if you take 100x odds).