KQ in the CO strategy question

[winky51]

Heres an interesting strategy question I was talking to a friend of mine about.

Lets say you are on the CO (1 before the button) with KQ.

Your are 1st in and raise.

The button 3 bets you and all fold.

What do you do?
Call the raise and fold on the flop if you miss?
Call the raise and call on the flop if you miss, then fold on the turn to a bet?
Call the raise and check/raise him on the flop then bet the turn?
Call the raise and check/call him on the flop then bet the turn?
Cap preflop and come out shooting till he lets you know your beat?
Fold preflop, NOT!

Now assume all these questions with these situation.
An Ace comes on the flop.
K or Q come on the flop, you bet and he raises.

Most likely hands he is raising

AA-77
AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ

[mannika]

I'm calling the 3-bet and then check/folding the flop unimproved most of the time. Barring any maniac reads, I think that your set of hands that you can put villain on are pretty well what is listed. Given that, you are ahead of NONE of those hands if you don't hit the flop, and don't have all that many outs to improve on average.

However, depending on the texture of the flop and how weak the player is, I might try a c/r bluff some of the time. (i.e., if the flop is A63 rainbow, and I think villain is capable of folding a hand, I'll often c/r here to try and take the pot away from a non-ace hand.)

[meep_42]

nm

[Flushed]

Why are we automatically giving the button credit for a good hand? You open-raised in the CO; it looks like a blinds steal. You can get three bet there by an aggressive player with much worse holdings.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we automatically giving the button credit for a good hand? You open-raised in the CO; it looks like a blinds steal. You can get three bet there by an aggressive player with much worse holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not necessarily giving the button credit for a good hand, it's just generally not worth it to find out if he indeed has one, hence the check/fold.

[vegasvegas]

No reads at all on the button ? Looks like the button wants the blinds to fold, so I wouldn't put him on a monster hand. Medium pair, two big cards maybe. Without any reads, I'd probably call his raise and bet the flop if an A, K or Q flops. K or Q I'd call a raise, A I'd probably fold.

[winky51]

Well lets look at the hands he would reraise with

------- vs KQ (assume typical players)
AA He will let you know on the flop of turn of what he has
KK-JJ He will let you know on the flop of turn of what he has. If the ace comes he will call you down.

TT Any face he will call down, might fold at river bet.

77-99 (18) Any face he will call down, might fold at river bet.

AK (12) Most will fold to cap PF and bet on flop and turn if he missed.

AQ-AT (12+16+16 = 44) Will most likely fold unimproved on turn.

So lets add it up and see. Assume the following

(possibilities)

AA-QQ way behind (6+3+3) but you will know quick at most losing 7 small bets
JJ-TT coin flip (12) no one is going to fold here, losing 9 small bets
99-77 coin flip (6)
40% chance to hit pair on flop/turn + 10% he might fold if board is scary,
AK (12) probably will fold to turn bet unimproved. You hit your pair 20% by turn.
AQ-AT (12+16+16) most likely will fold on turn bet unimproved. You hit your pair 20% by turn.

AA-QQ way behind 12 ways for opponents to have
lose (-7 SBs) 85% of the time. win about 15% of the time (+9 SBs). ** -4.6 SBs

JJ-TT 12 ways you lose 7 SBs 50%. win about 50% of the time getting (9 SBs). *** +1 SBs
77-99 12 ways you lose 7 SBs 50%. win about 60% of the time getting (9 SBs). *** +1 SBs
AK-AQ 24 ways you lose 8 SBs 25%. (when you hit the K you pay off thats why 8) *** +1.75 SBs
win about 25% with pair or better (5 SBs assuming he folds turn),
70% he folds no pair on turn. 75% chance to win (5 SBs).
AJ-AT 32 ways ways you lose 7 SBs 20% *** +2.6 SBs
win about 40% with pair or better (5 SBs assuming he folds turn),
70% he folds no pair on turn. 80% chance to win.
Sooooo

12 ways -4.6
24 ways +1
24 ways +1.75
32 ways +2.6

Seems like you have more ways to win than lose. You could also appy this to AQ, AJ, AT, KJ when you hold those hands

I hope this seems right. What I figure only vs a big pair you lose almost always. VS a smaller pair to your cards its 50/50. All the other non-pairs have to hit to win. Most players assume a big pair on a cap and will fold no pair on turn.