10/20 Q9s

Jason,

Outside of the blinds in an unraised pot, this is not a playable hand. On the turn I would call rather than raise, because it is clear that I have a drawing hand and I do not want people to fold. In addition, you might want to seek out a tailor to help with getting pants sized to fit properly. It's clear that the waist on those slacks is designed for someone with larger thighs and smaller calves. Your color choice, however, is impeccable. I give it a 3.14 on the *jason_TT* scale.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],
jason_TT

[istewart]

Awesome.

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this raise soosososooso much.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I have twenty outs to an almost sure win. That gives me ~40% equity in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

So wouldn't you rather put in 1/3rd of the money on the turn? I'd like it more if your fold equity was > really [censored] slim, or I thought you had a chance to scoop with your pair. As is, I really just don't get it.

[imashyboi]

PreFlop - I like calling here with Q9s. Q9s in a passive game definitely has some +EV.

Flop - Standard

Turn - Raising and calling are fine but I like raising for the sake of being aggressive. Definitely switch it up from time to time specially against someone who's tough. I like raising because you have so many outs, I think you're getting enough value to raise anyway. The raise on the turn is for value cause I don't think any Q will fold here.

River - I'm betting almost anything here unless it's totally garbage.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I have twenty outs to an almost sure win. That gives me ~40% equity in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jason, I think you need to discount pretty much here, you don't discount at all.


Counting outs:

Hands those loose passives could have that makes you forced to discount:

<u>UTG:</u>
KQ: 11.5 outs
J9: 18 outs
87: 14 outs
Other reasonable hands he could have: JT
I also think it's reasonable he's called the flop with a set trying to bet the turn to get raised by the flop aggressor and trap you, bad players tend to do that a lot (against these hands we have 14 outs). But what hands will a loose/passive bet this turn with after the aggression shown on the flop? The only one that you have 20 outs against is JT unless he's a über-fish and calls preflop in UTG with J3.

If we add some hands such as J3s and the fact that he might be donking with AJo or something like it (not very likely a loose/passive will do that after the flop got betted and raised) I would still say you'll only have ~17.5 outs against UTG.

<u>Then we need to worry about MP2:</u>
KT: 17 outs
TT/99/33: 14 outs
QT: 15 outs
T8: 17 outs
Other reasonable hands: Hard to put on a range but since he's passive it's not terribly wide. Of course it's made up by more hands we're having 20 outs against than those I've already mentioned, but he'll still kill a decent ammount of outs.

Put together I think it's obvious that estimating more than 17 outs would be too optimistic.



EV-calculations:

17 outs gives us 37% equity (first [...] is EV for the flop and 2nd is for the river).

<u>EV (turn raise):</u>
[(2+2x)*0.37 - 2*0.63)] + [(1+x)*0.37*0.935 - 1*0.065]
x = the chance of MP2 calling the turn raise.

I assume if MP2 calls the turn he'll call the river too and so will UTG. If we hit and miss it will cost us 1BB on the river, if we miss the river we'll check/fold. I estimate x=80%.

[(2+2*0.8)*0.37 - 2*0.63] + [(1+0.8)*0.37*0.935 - 1*0.065] = +0.48BB (x=90% would give +0.66BB)

<u>EV (turn call):</u>
[2*0.37 - 1*0.63] + [(2+2y)*0.935 - 2*0.065]
y = the chance MP2 will call 2 cold on the river, I assume he'll always call the turn. I estimate y=65%:

[2*0.37 - 1*0.63] + [(2+2*0.65)*0.935 - 2*0.065] = +2.4BB



Of course this is a very simplistic calculation for a complex situation, but I don't think the assumtions made will swing the results much in favor for one of the 2 lines and I think it's a decent approximation.

I really can't see how we could change those approximation so a turn raise would be correct. Why would we want to push a tiny edge on the turn, risking to lose costumers and maybe get 3-bettet when we can wait for the river to raise when we hit. These are loose/passive player, we can't count on them giving any action when we hit the river if raised the turn. They might even check the turn when the flushdraw hits depending on how strong their hands are which would swing the calculation a little, a turn raise will become a little better, but not close to making it correct.

EDIT: another benefit for raising is the folding equity, but that's about zero here.I also think folding the river ui after calling the turn would be very safe.

[imashyboi]

This analysis is very indept, you have to remember though, we don't have enough time to actually consider all of this which is why raising or calling is fairly close. I didn't realize there was someone else left to act after us. Being that there is 1 more player(who called 2bets on the flop) left I think calling would be more profitable. If you closed the action on the turn then a raise is definitely a must for value.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
This analysis is very indept, you have to remember though, we don't have enough time to actually consider all of this which is why raising or calling is fairly close.

[/ QUOTE ]
Making these calculations away from the table makes it easier to come to the right decision at the table.I felt getting the money into the pot on the river with a made hand would be more profitable than pushing a marginal edge, so I decided to investigate the matter.

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize there was someone else left to act after us.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would raise hu on the turn if I thought I had a decent ammount of folding equity. Against a loose/passive who bets the turn after this aggression on the flop I don't think investing 3BB to get him to fold will be worth it since he'll fold very rarely. I would just call the turn and fold the river UI, losing only 1BB. That is if I'm confident in my read.

[BigEndian]

Raising or calling to me are both fine. One of the reasons to raise is players start paying more attention as we move up. Raising here gives action, hopefully in a way that our opponents don't understand at all and in a little less than neutral situation. Which we can parlay into more bets later on.

Even passives can be convinced to put more bets in the pot than they normally would (especially if he hits his draw and they get pissed because he jacked it without a made hand). I was this happen twice last night against a player who was putting the screws on two different loose passives. In return, they went multiple bets on the turn against him with really crappy hands.

- Jim

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising or calling to me are both fine. One of the reasons to raise is players start paying more attention as we move up. Raising here gives action, hopefully in a way that our opponents don't understand at all and in a little less than neutral situation. Which we can parlay into more bets later on.

Even passives can be convinced to put more bets in the pot than they normally would (especially if he hits his draw and they get pissed because he jacked it without a made hand). I was this happen twice last night against a player who was putting the screws on two different loose passives. In return, they went multiple bets on the turn against him with really crappy hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree. I don't like raising and I don't think it's particular close. Against what hands will we induce more action when we hit the riverby raising the turn? We have to assume these opponents have made hands since they're passive and both have been playing aggressively. 2-pair are likely as well as a set and UTG might have a completed stright. I don't think UTG will have less than 2-pair even though AJo is possible, MP2 can hold just a pair though. So by raising the turn we'll only get action from sets and 2-pair making their hand on the river, which means we're getting action from full houses, a hand we will lose to. On this coordinated board I don't think we'll any more action from 2-pairs if we raise the turn from loose passives.

I like to call the turn, keeping MP2 in the pot and get bet into when I hit the river.