ZeeJustin Hand Discussion

[ZeeJustin]

I don't remember exactly what I was thinking at the time I played this hand, but it probably went something like this:

Matt opened for 400 utg. MattZ is not a regular, and didn't seem tight. 4x BB prolly indicates he wants to take the pot down preflop. 77-JJ, KQ, AJ, AQ are all likely. Hands better than those are certianly possible, but slightly less likely.

Purr is a good player. He probably thinks the same of MattZ's range. He probably expects a call, in which case he has TT, AQ+, but it wouldn't surprise me if he occassionally makes this hand with A5s or 22 or something, although I would not be a fan of that play and don't expect to see it too often.

If I call all-in, I expect MattZ to fold more often than not.

Take the worst case scenario out of all of these:
Matt has 77, KQ, AJ+ (take away what I said about better hands being less likely than the mediocre hands for the time being)
Purr has TT, AQ+ (with no chance of making a play with worse hands)
Matt calls with everything but KQ, AJ and AQ.

This is pretty much the worst case scenario for me, but IMO, the math would still indicate a call. This is a mathematical scenario, and don't think it's not for one second.

If anyone takes the time to do some math, please PM me a link to your post and I'll take a look and respond to the results.

I'm surprised this hand came up without anyone actually taking the time to ask me about it.

Lesson to the wise: I make mistakes often, and also make plays for weird reasons that observers won't be aware of. Don't automatically assume anything I do is right. (That being said, this is IMO a straightforward, albeit close, decision that I don't regret).

[Oluwafemi]

now i wonder why this was so hard for citanul to answer? for a so-called hand that was only addressed to and could only be answered by Zee, many others had no problem adding their take on the hand. it ain't that hard; some people just make it harder than it has to be. thanks for the reply Zee.

[UMTerp]

I like math.

OK, I'm making a couple assumptions, none of which I think will affect the results all that much:

1. I'm ignoring the 40 chip side pot Justin could win against Purr.

2. I'm ignoring ties, because I used pokerstove here, but intuition tells me that would only matter to tenths of a percent (my results will show slightly more triple-ups and slightly more bustouts for Justin, since ties aren't relevant in my simulation - I think they'll more or less negate each other in the EV calculations). Intuition tells me this assumption will work slightly against Justin, but not much.

3. I'm ignoring fold equity value of the stacks here, though they're not particularly relevant yet.

4. I'm assuming Matt calls and Purr stacks him if Justin folds. Just because I'm lazy. I don't think this assumption matters much either since Justin's stack will the same, but it does affect ICM a tiny bit due to stack distribution issues.


There are 87 hands Matt can hold given his range Justin perscribed. Of these 87, 36 are KQ, AJ, or AQ. Matt will fold these. He'll call the other 51.

If Matt calls, given the ranges, Justin's AKs has a 30.043% chance of winning.

If Matt folds, Justin has a 51.649% chance against Purr's range.

IF JUSTIN CALLS:

IF MATT CALLS:

Justin will bust 69.657% of the time.

30.043% of the time, Justin will have a stack of 4555, which equates to 0.2981 prize pool equity according to ICM.

IF MATT FOLDS:

Justin will bust 48.351% of the time.

51.649% of the time, Justin will have a 0.2450 prize pool equity according to ICM.

So if Justin calls, (51/87)(.30043)(.2981)+(36/87)(.51649)(.2450) =
Justin has an equity of 10.486% of the prize pool.

If Justin folds, ICM gives him 12.3% of the prize pool.

Wow, that's a BIG difference. Intuitively, that doesn't seem right. Did I do anything wrong??

Is it possible that making the ties half winners and half losers changed the results that much? It's certainly a feasible outcome of the hand...