AQo lvl3 deep stacked, in position w/ 20bb

[45suited]

So... basically, my post was the same as Yugo's except I included no math and no hot women.

I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
So... basically, my post was the same as Yugo's except I included no math and no hot women.

I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Naw....don't worry 'bout it. I got yo back.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yugoslav
<font color="white">Who sorta made a strategy post, [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].</font>

[mcpherzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info is, by and large, irrelevant. You have 4 players left to act behind you, all of whom can break you. There is no guarantee this pot will be played heads-up.

That said, I push here every time, and it's not even close. It appears villian is playing enough hands that you can expect to be way ahead of his holding on average. You'd push AK here right, without a second's thought? Villian hasn't done anything to convince you your AK would be good here but your AQ is in big trouble. Plus, lots of opponents that play like this (open a bunch of hands in a row and get all kinds of chips) shut down the moment they catch any action back at them. I expect all will fold to your push at least 3 in 4 times.

--Z

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info is, by and large, irrelevant. You have 4 players left to act behind you, all of whom can break you. There is no guarantee this pot will be played heads-up.


[/ QUOTE ]

WEAK!

Yeah, I should have mentioned that. While I don't have a very precise way of calculating that, I think that 5% or less of the time you will be in a 3way pot here. And I think you will be in a 1 way pot (villian folds) a certain amount of the time anyway. I also didn't get into what will happen when you have over 2k chips and are the leader....but even better things happen then (than if you only have 965 or whatever).

[ QUOTE ]

That said, I push here every time, and it's not even close. It appears villian is playing enough hands that you can expect to be way ahead of his holding on average. You'd push AK here right, without a second's thought? Villian hasn't done anything to convince you your AK would be good here but your AQ is in big trouble. Plus, lots of opponents that play like this (open a bunch of hands in a row and get all kinds of chips) shut down the moment they catch any action back at them. I expect all will fold to your push at least 3 in 4 times.

--Z

[/ QUOTE ]

So how was me demonstrating the math behind the hero being ahead and gaining $EV not helpful (it actually was quite helpful for me, honestly)? Anyway, given the read I think that the villian will fold a decent amount of the time in practice *and* have a larger range than just any two broadways in practice. I agree it shouldn't be very close.

Go drink more heinekens!!!

Yugoslav
PS Maulik, the chick wasn't for you...she was to make me more comfortable posting strategy [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].
PPS Btw Zen, the last time you bitched out one of my strategy posts I still think I was right generally...that having an Ax hand is often times better than having QJs b/c there are fewer ace hands for your opponents to call you with. I'd say QJ is close to A4 or something (which is a pretty weak ace frankly)...