On a 30,000 hand downswing.....

[krazyace5]

the majority were bad beats/bad luck.

Going over my hands I can see it is a mix of bad luck and over aggressiveness. Looks like I got bad habits to kick.
Looking at some of these hands now I can see how I overplayed some of them. Oh well , back to the grind.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
But I honestly think and attribute a majority of it to the fact that I have just been having the worst luck lately.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Your bad results were due 100% to poor play. (Keep reading...)

That's a better attitude than the one you've taken. My way, you're committed to finding and fixing your leaks (which you do have -- everybody does). Your way, you can get away with blaming the fish for thier terrible suckouts, the poker gods for not recieving your scrifices on time, variance for swinging it's mathematical stick in your direction... what have you. But you're not going to be committed to improving, which every poker player should be committed to. Downswing or no.

I'm looking forward to Team Donkey's calculation. It is the only way to answer your question.

But in the mean time, your graph shows that you are down apx 0.02 bb/100. That is a very shallow (although long) downswing. So, I expect that the probability of this happening by chance, if you are a truely 4bb/100 player, is not terribly unlikely.

[krazyace5]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking forward to Team Donkey's calculation. It is the only way to answer your question.

But in the mean time, your graph shows that you are down apx 0.02 bb/100. That is a very shallow (although long) downswing. So, I expect that the probability of this happening by chance, if you are a truely 4bb/100 player, is not terribly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]


I actually went back into pokertracker and I was running just over 13,000 hands at NL$100 6max at (-5.28)bb per 100 hands and then since I dropped down about 18,000 hands at NL$50 6-max at around breakeven.

[ QUOTE ]

I actually went back into pokertracker and I was running just over 13,000 hands at NL$100 6max at (-5.28)bb per 100 hands and then since I dropped down about 18,000 hands at NL$50 6-max at around breakeven.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is useful, and the stakes should be evaluated seperately. It is a further bit of evidence that your game is not strong enough for the higher stakes.

The bigger picture is, as others pointed out, that we post to improve and no one plays perfect poker.

Just study study study... I'm in a 600 BB downswing (six buy-ins), and I lost 6 of 7 all-ins with the best hand when the money went in. This is through ~3k hands, so I hope I can turn it around anyway.