Simple Common Tournament Situation

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Binions:

I've only read David's post and your post. So perhaps this comment of mine has already been addressed.

You're assuming that if you fold your expectation is zero. Now in a side game that would be the case because you have the option to quit. But in a tournament that's not the case since you must keep playing.

For instance, suppose you adjusted the rules of the tournament so that if you fold here you must take the big blind but then you are allowed to quit. So by folding, your expectation is no longer zero, it now becomes negative.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your reply Mason. You are correct, in that I viewed the problem in a vaccum, ie a one-hand analysis.

I did not calculate the EV for the tourney "as a whole" by gaining the 300 chips when you raise and everyone folds, by keeping 1100 (by folding), by gaining 1200-1400 by doubling up, or by losing your stack as the best player at the table.

Frankly, I am not sure how to calculate "tourney EV" in this situation. Can you help?

It occurs to me that if you fold, you have 900 chips in the BB. If raised all in, you have 12-9 odds. That's good enough to call some hands but not all. If you fold, then you have 800 chips in the SB, and will get 11-8 if you are raised all in. Again, good enough to play some hands, but not all.

If you can't play in the blinds, you'll have 800 chips left. With a BB of 200, you lose a lot of fold equity. You are giving everyone 11-8 to 11-6 odds to call any of your raises.

[Goodwin]

All-in. This is undoubtably a +EV situation. If you pick a sufficiently narrow range of hands such that QJs is a 70%-80% dog, your folding equity more than makes up for the times you lose. Once you adjust the calling standards downward, the dead money in the pot is enough to make up for the fact you'll be a slight dog.

Example for a tight table, you get called by AA-99, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ. That's 82 combinations, the probability you will not get called is 44%. If you do get called you lose about 67% of the time (wtd avg of twodimes numbers).

(.44)(300) + (.56)(.67)(-1100) + (.56)(.33)(2400) = about +160

(you win 2,500 if you beat someone outside of the blinds, 2,400 if the small blind calls, 2,300 if the big blind calls, so we'll call it 2,400 conservatively).

All-in.

[AngryCola]

This is all true but fails to address Mason's point about not being in a vaccum.

What do you gain by folding?

[curtains]

If there were 25 dollar antes, Id push here everytime. I'd generally move allin without the antes, but some factors that would make it even more likely or change my decision:

If blinds are going up to 150-300 shortly after paying my blinds, Ill move in for sure, because once you have just 800 with 150-300 blinds, its extremely difficult to steal. If they are moving to 200-400 then I'll push for sure, as once those blinds raise you have no chance to steal.

If the BB or SB is pot committed preflop I'd probably fold. If the BB has only 500 before the hand for example, then I wouldn't move allin, because you have to win a showdown and have to avoid a big hand behind you.

[Hotrod0823]

With little over 5xBB I think you had to make a move earlier to avoid this situation.

That being said I push. A raise quite possibly will get reraised - Then what? Is QJs worth all your chips calling all in?

I think it is worth more if you push and have at least the opportunity to pickup the blinds.

Folding and waiting probably is what got you into this situation in the first place. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[deuces09]

The fact that you're UTG and about to see the blinds is probably a big factor in Slkansky's question.

[MicroBob]

I'm folding this one and waiting (not for very long obviously) for a better situation.


Hoping someone comes after me with a pair or an Ace in the blinds or something like that.


From MP I'm pushing all-in with this bad-boy.
From UTG+2 on a tightish table I would probably take a shot at it.

But from UTG here....still with a couple orbits of life remaining....I'm going to get rid of this usually.


It also depends on how tight the opponents are and how big the stacks are from various postions. Obviously it can also depend on how close to the bubble I am and what my place in the tourney standings is, etc etc.

But, all things being equal. I'm typically mucking this.

[deuces09]

Okay, here is what I do:

Call, hope for a raise, and move all in. More dead money in the pot, better pot odds with suited broadway.

[theBruiser500]

If you don't go all in after the blinds you're down to T800 which isn't enough to pick up pots really. If the table is really loose though I might wait.

[durron597]

Lets say you fold and fold off the blinds, too. Then you will be left with 800 chips. The next time you push, the BB will be getting 1100:600 to call, or almost 2:1, which basically means he should call with anything; you have lost what remained of your folding equity.

Now, should you double up in that situation, at best you will have 1900 chips, and at worst 1700 chips; let's call it 1800 for when the small blind calls you to average out. You will still be under 10xBB and the blinds are probably going to go up in another orbit or two, max.

I think your stack is just small enough that you have to push here, to give yourself the magic 10xBB number should you double up. You can't outplay a table with no folding equity!