JJ against TAG's 3 bet

thesharpie · #1 10-11-2005, 05:07 AM

19.5/12 over 90 hands.

Is it safe to put him on something like AK/AQ and 99-AA?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero??

Cumulonimbus · #2 10-11-2005, 05:09 AM

I got no advice for ya. I would have capped preflop, bet the flop, and made him make the decision you now have to make.

toss · #3 10-11-2005, 05:29 AM

I usually fold the flop. If it were a Q instead I'd calldown.

stillbr · #4 10-11-2005, 07:29 AM

He is betting a TON of hands here that you can still beat. Depending on his 3-betting range I'd cap preflop then lead the flop. It makes the hand much easier to play

toss · #5 10-11-2005, 07:55 AM

12 pfr means he raises a lot, but it doesn't say anything about how often he 3-bets. If his range is AK-AQ, 99-AA we're a dog. If we instead open raised in CO and he 3-betted on the Button I'd be more interested in Calling down.

TheHammer24 · #6 10-11-2005, 09:32 AM

12 pfr, you have to cap preflop and bet the flop

deception5 · #7 10-11-2005, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If his range is AK-AQ, 99-AA we're a dog

[/ QUOTE ]

But only a slight dog. With 7.5 SB in the pot I think we need to show this down, no?

Board: 3d 3s Ks
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.4679 % 43.53% 01.06% { JdJh }
Hand 2: 55.5321 % 54.62% 01.06% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

nfscreech · #8 10-11-2005, 11:20 AM

I'd 3-bet pf in villians position with 88/77, and sometimes 66, and my pfr% is less than his.

Since you only have 90 hands on the guy, lets just add 88 to the range you put him on.

That means you're ahead of:

TT-88, and every AQ combo besides AsQs. You're about 50% vs AsQs, so we'll count it as a half combo.

Total ahead - 33.5 combos

We're behind to:
AK, AA-QQ, 1/2 AsQs.

Total behind - 27.5 combos.

You're actually a favorite to win this hand. Given the villians stats, I assume he is an aggressive player, and will continue to bet the turn with any of his likely holdings. Raising anywhere will just cost you money against the hands that have you crushed, and scare away the
hands you beat badly. With that nice 3.5BB cushion, I think your most profitable play would be to check/call down.

toss · #9 10-11-2005, 11:28 AM

I think we have to take account that AKo will be more likely than AQo since villain will more often 3-bet with AQK. I think the same goes for AA-QQ vs 99-TT.

MrEngenic · #10 10-11-2005, 11:56 AM

If he's more like pfr 9 % I fold this flop if I don't cap preflop. 90 hands is not much but he seems like a pretty laggy TAG to me, so I call down.