TPNK - call getting 10:1?

[The Goober]

Live 8-16

Villian in this hand is a good player. Not particularly creative, but a solid, thinking player. MP2 I don't have a great read on, but he seems loose-passive.

PF Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 and MP3 both come back to the table and post blinds.
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 (villian) calls, hero calls, posters check, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](7 players, 7SB)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">villain bets</font>, <font color="red">hero raises</font>, MP2 cold-calls, everybody folds to villain, villian calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 6.5BB)
<font color="red">villain bets</font>, hero calls, MP2 calls
After I call, MP2 says "you just call? then i can call too"

River 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 9.5BB)
<font color="red">villain bets</font>, hero...

Not raising the turn was criminal. Once bet into on the turn, since you know you have to call with your top pair/flush draw, raising is better if it might eliminate a better hand behind you. The opponent behind you could easily have a king with a better kicker so you must raise the turn to pressure him off his holding. Plus there is still a small possibility that the turn bettor will make a bad laydown. IF the turn bettor has Kx with a weaker kicker than you, you would still be glad if he folds the turn since he has alot of chop outs, and the turn bettor may fold a better hand than you, although highly unlikely, he cant fold if you dont raise and give him a chance to, but most importantly you need to raise to force the guy behind you out.

just curious, what's the villian betting with that doesn't have you beat?
If the villian had a low K, wouldn't the villian slow down with a reraiser AND a coldcaller on a rainbow unconnected board?
If he has AA then knocking out the other guy could buy you a K, and if villian has 2-pair no K then you buy 3 outs, but is that really enough?

[The Goober]

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Not raising the turn was criminal.

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Its certainly debatable, but think criminal is too strong here. The thing is that it really looks like villain has me beat here. He's a good player, so its very unlikely that he called PF with a worse K than mine. He's stop-n-go means that either he's protecting a K (likely better than mine) against a free card play, or else he improved on the turn to 2 pair or better. I think raising his turn bet is just likely to protect his hand, not mine. Since villain's play looks so much like a K, I think its unlikely that the guy behind me has the case K.

But given my turn call, what would you do on the river?

[felix83]

I think since you're still not last to act, and the caller behind is loose passive (logic would dictate he'd have at least mid-pair), between the 2 of them one of them is going to have you beat. You can make a very justifiable fold.

raise the turn to push the other guy out.

then if you miss the flush you can check behind him on the river (hopefully you are heads up then).

[TheHammer24]

Don't raise the turn. A thinking player won't bet into you in the flop, get raised, then donk the turn. He has KJ at worst. Call and draw to your flush.

Preflop, is bad, suited kings don't play that great.

Flop is...ok, I guess if you are going to continue you have to play it this way.

I fold the river. IF you're read on Villian is accurate you're smoked here.

[The Goober]

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Don't raise the turn. A thinking player won't bet into you in the flop, get raised, then donk the turn. He has KJ at worst. Call and draw to your flush.

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This was my thinking exactly.

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Preflop, is bad, suited kings don't play that great.

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I normally would only play this hand on the button after many limpers, but in this the two posters mean that I'm guarenteed a 6-way flop, so I think its good.

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Flop is...ok, I guess if you are going to continue you have to play it this way.

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At the time I didn't think this was close, but maybe you are right that folding here is best. If I assume that my K outs are no good, then I've got 3 outs for an 8, and 1.5 for my BDFD. So, 4.5 outs getting 8:1... I dunno, its close.

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I fold the river. IF you're read on Villian is accurate you're smoked here.

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Yep, I think this is clearly right. This guy wouldn't be getting that fancy with a turned flush draw or something like that. Even at 10:1, he's got me beat.

Unfortunately, at the time I couldn't convince myself this so I called and MP2 folded. Villain shows KJ for 2 pair and clearly MHING.

thanks for everyone's input.