Check on river, right move?

[BigChris407]

Second hand of single table tournament. I hold AKo flop comes K % 10 Diamonds. I don't hold a diamond. Pot 95. I bet 65, villain calls. Turn 6 Clubs. I bet 140, villain calls. River 7 spades. I check. My thinking is that if he was calling with flush from beginning, he's gonna re-raise and if he doesn't have flush he's prob. going to fold so bet is worthless. Comments on all streets welcome.

[meff66]

questions:

if the pot is 95, who's in it? just you two? any raise pre-flop? what was your/his position on the table?

[BigChris407]

Sorry. few callers, he was button, I was big blind, I raised, 2 folds, he called.

[Sam T.]

I know your logic here - you will only be called if you are beaten, and if he's on the draw he'll fold.

Against players who have brains this is true. In the low buy-ins, however (is this a low buy-in?), this is simply not the case. A bet will be called down here by a truly astonishing range of hands: virtually any king or ten is possible, pocket 9s, etc. Bet here for value.

Sam

[meff66]

short answer: you must value bet the river here. checking in to him on the river after already under betting the pot on the flop & river, makes it far to easy for him to bet YOU out.

long answer:
he called your preflop raise (3-4xBB i hope).
he only called your weakish flop bet.
- does he have the flush (possibly smooth-calling)
- does he have a set (not likely, w/3 on board. he doesn't want to see the turn)
- does he have 2pair (ditto)
- calling your preflop raise, he could very well have the A of diamonds, or maybe Q'10'suited/non-diamond, or the like. your continuation bet on the flop looks a little weak, i could see him calling with either.

you only bet 1/2 pot on the turn.
he only calls.
- does he have the flush (doubtful, you'd think he'd hit the turn hard if that was the case - not risking a forth diamond on the river. even if he had the nut, your indication of weakness might make 'the big river move' appear less likely to happen).
- a simple call again here, most certainly puts him on the nut flush draw, a 10, or possibly Kx.

you check the river.

we already ruled out the flush. you are now either...
(a) ahead w/ top pair
(b) ahead w/ top pair higher kicker
(c) behind against a NOW 2-pair or set.

a value bet is a must at this point. you got yourself in a pickle, but to bet nothing makes this WAY to easy for him to steal this from you.

with your obvious concern about losing a ton of chips and your display of disinterest in your betting, you might have been better served letting him take the lead.

say you check the flop.
his bet, or lack there of, might make your decision there and on the turn a bit easier.
say HE only bet out 2/3 the pot. you could spend just as much reraising him (as you did betting the flop/turn) yourself. if he has the flush he'll hammer it and you get out of dodge.

IMHO: (1) bet more on the flop or (2) check, possibly check-raise.