1 – 2 NL at Turning Stone, stacking problem.

[Proofrock]

I apologize if I'm posting this in the wrong forum, but the stacks are deep enough that I figured it would fit in here.

1-2 NL / 200 max buy-in game at Turning Stone.

Hero is on the button with ~ $ 900.
Villain 1 is UTG with ~ $1300.
Villain 2 is UTG + 1 with ~ $1000.
BB has ~ $200

Preflop: Villain 1 raises to $15 (standard raise at this table), Villain 2 calls, folds around to Hero, who calls on the button with 5c 5d. SB folds, BB calls.

Flop ($61 in the pot): 5s 9s 10c

BB checks, Villain 1 bets $30, Villain 2 hesitates, then calls $30. Hero??

Reads:

Villain 1 has never had this much money before at the table, and has been playing reasonably tight preflop so as not to lose it. That being said, his betting is transparent and he is prone to make costly mistakes - he overbets strong hands (i.e., sets, straights, etc.) and will go to the felt with overpairs and TPTK.

Villain 2 will play any two preflop, doesn't get too out of line postflop, but is willing to pay more than he should for his draws.

Hero's table image is solid. Doesn't play many hands, hasn't shown down any bluffs.

If Hero wants to stack villain(s) here, how should he proceed?

[autobet]

I would usually raise the flop, especially against 3 players with a pos flush and str8 draws out.

I would make it around 130 to go raising about a hundred. You could make it a little more like 150 to go, but you want action.

[xorbie]

Make it at least $130. Even that is only 2/3 pot.

[Finwe]

Raise the flop $110-150 depending on raises at the table thus far. There are straight and flush draws out there. They probably will think you are raising with a draw to a) take down the pot and b) to possibly take a free card. So you are more likely and better off to get the money in early as there are many turn cards that kill your action.

[sniperd]

When this happens to me, I want to raise it enough so somebody will think, "Gee, that's a lot in there now, I'll go over the top with my AA, etc." I think I make it $150 at least, maybe even $200. I don't mind killing the action and just taking it down, because so many turn cards are going to make it hard for me to play, even with position. Any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6 7 8 J Q K. Those cards could beat me, and make it so I won't get called by a 2 pair. I want them to really think they are in a good spot to re-raise me. I suppose if you make it $150 and only get called, and one of those cards come down, you'd have to check behind otherwise your sort of commiting yourself since the pot would be almost $400.

The only other option I see is just flat calling and hoping for a safe turn to make your move. I like the first option of a nice big bet, but I like to gamboool!

[Proofrock]

Alright, let me refine the original post a bit. Typically, Hero would raise it up to $150 since there are 3 other players and both a straight and a flush draw out. He almost certainly has the best hand now and wants to make the others pay to draw.

In this hand, though, Hero wants to make the play that is most likely to double him up, especially since villains are both pretty bad (and easily read) players. With this goal in mind, how does this affect the play? Is it a bad idea to even have this goal in mind?

Let's say Hero figures Villain 1 for AK or AQ with at most 1 spade, and let's also say Hero has a feeling that Villain 2 is on a weak draw – either a low gutshot, a backdoor flush draw, or maybe even a "set draw" with 66 - 88. Let's also say Hero is capable of folding his set if this initial read is wrong and one of the villains makes a monster (they're not tricky players, so it's unlikely they'll be trapping in any non-obvious way).

Is there any argument to made here for a smaller raise – say raise to $90 or $100? A possible reasoning for such a raise would be as follows:

Hero raises to $100. BB either pushes or folds. If BB pushes (as he would if hero raised $130-$150) both villains fold (or hero pushes if one of them miraculously calls). If BB folds, this raise is more likely to induce Villain 1 to stick around to catch his ace (or is he just as likely to stay around if it will cost $100 into a $250 pot as he is if it costs only $70 into a $220 pot?). If Villain 1 folds, I expect Villain 2 to fold as well. If Villain 1 calls, then I figure Villain 2 will as well. If A or K falls (I don't figure Villain 2 for J Q, based on the reluctance to call the $30 on the flop – we've been playing together for about 5 hours, and he has never been reluctant to call any amount for an OESD), Hero expects to rake in a large pot. Otherwise, Hero bets about the pot on the turn and takes down a slightly larger pot with just about any other card than he would have if they both folded the flop (though admittedly it gets stickier if a spade or straight card falls).

One drawback of this line is it will either get both villains or neither of them to call. Furthermore, the bet seems a bit too small to narrow villains' hand ranges, and I'm not sure how to proceed if another spade or straight card comes off. Is there any good way to isolate Villain 1 without scaring him off? What about Villain 2?

Other thoughts, suggestions, criticisms?

(Incidentally, in the actual hand Hero raised it to $150, everybody folded. I was happy to take down the pot, but have been wondering if I could have extracted more from this hand.)