Knowing the Odds

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I think you meant 4 to 1 for the flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Nope. While it would seem that it's 4:1, since there are a few cards of that suit on the board already, your chances of hitting are less than 25%.

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34.97% to hit it on either the turn or river.
19.57% to hit it on just the river.

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I just wonder how much do you winning players know about numbers and odds? Do you have to be a human calculator to play at the biggest games?

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The math required isn't very complex. It's a combination of memorization, and either counting or simple division.

Pregame:
Memorize the odds of hitting each possible number of outs (eg 4 outs to gutshot, 8 outs to open-ended straight, 21 outs to open-ended straight flush draw + 2 overcards). It ranges from 1 out to 21 outs. An important skill here is the ability to know which of your outs are live and which are tainted. Drawing to an open-ended straight with a two-suited flop is an example of having two tainted outs. PM me your email address and I'll send you a "cheat sheet" that you can print out and take with you while you play, which will make these numbers easier to memorize.

Gametime:
1. If you decide that you are drawing and need to hit to win (a non-math skill), determine how many clean outs you have.
2. Recall the odds of hitting this number of outs, in the form x : 1.
3. Here's the "tough" part: determine the number of bets in the pot, b. You can do this either by counting the bets as they go in, or just estimating by looking. An approximate guess is all that is required unless the situation is really close.
4. Determine the number of bets you have to call immediately, c.
5. Divide: y = b / c. This is usually really easy as you are typically only facing one bet and not often calling more than one bet at a time. This is known as the "current pot odds" in the form y : 1.
6. Compare. If y >= x, then you are justified in calling. I'll let you figure out implied odds another time.

If you can't understand this math, then it is definately not legal for you to be playing poker.

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I think you meant 4 to 1 for the flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Nope. While it would seem that it's 4:1, since there are a few cards of that suit on the board already, your chances of hitting are less than 25%.

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It's 4:1 to hit it on one card, which is often mistaken for 5:1. This is why (spolier: basic math lesson follows):

4:1 means that out of every 5 times, you will miss 4 times and hit 1 time. The ratio of the the number of times you miss to the number of times you hit is 4 to 1. The fractional value is 1/5, which is indeed less than 25%. Hope you learned something here today, class. See you on Tuesday.

[mudbuddha]

i donno how precise this is... but this is what i do.. however many outs there is i multiply by 2 to get the odds to hit on the very next card, then multiply by 4 to get the odds to hit on 2 cards.
This is simply an estimate.. so flush draw = 2x9= 18% which is 4:1.. its rough but it works.. draw with bottom pair vs 2 pair would be 5 outs.. 5x4= 20% to win with 2 cards to go.

then after doing that, being able to change % to odds is all you ahve to learn. then after that its easy..

i hope this helps some ppl

[Brash620]

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i donno how precise this is... but this is what i do.. however many outs there is i multiply by 2 to get the odds to hit on the very next card, then multiply by 4 to get the odds to hit on 2 cards.
This is simply an estimate.. so flush draw = 2x9= 18% which is 4:1.. its rough but it works.. draw with bottom pair vs 2 pair would be 5 outs.. 5x4= 20% to win with 2 cards to go.

then after doing that, being able to change % to odds is all you ahve to learn. then after that its easy..

i hope this helps some ppl

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I beleive it is known as the rule of 42 and it works for the most part. It isn't the most exact way of finding odds but it gives a rough estimate.

[KidPokerX]

RiverDood-
That was one of the most thought-out and insightful posts I have ever read on 2+2. Im adding it to my favorite's list.
Thank you.