3/6 Swings

[zokbarjazz]

For 3/6 or 2/4 playas:
I currently 4-table 3/6, usually playing 2-4 hour sessions. My daily swings feel pretty significant, as in usually greater than 50BB in either direction. Tuesday I was down 90BB in about 6 hours, yesterday up 93BB in about 4 hours. I'm guessing that my style of play lends itself to greater variance (I play a lot of speculative hands).

Is this high variance, or am I over-reacting? What styles of play increase/decrease variance? Any other 3/6 players want to share their experiences? (I've only been playing 3/6 for a little while).

TIA

Jeremy

[Octopus]

In 6 hours of 4 tabling, you play something like 1400 hands. A typical standard deviation for your results over than many hands is 60BB. This means that about 38% of the time your result would be more than 60BB away from your expectation, above or below, assuming that the distribution was normal (which it isn't, but it's not too far off for this many hands).

You are over-reacting.

[winky51]

Hmm interesting. I play 4 tables of 3/6 and my variance is never more than 25BB down. If I hit that level on all tables I take a break and come back or switch tables.

I do have a bad beat policy: If I take 3 bad beats in a row at a table or find myself down $100 I leave and go to another table. I find that once you start going downhill bad at a table people stop respecting you. They bluff at you, are more aggressive, they play less predictable which is what you don't want. You want them to fear you and play timidly. You want them to only be raising when they have you beat so you save money. Not trying to trick you out of a pot. And as always be nice to the fishes. Encourage them to play bad. Never insult, say "nh". Keep em predictable.

Now on the winning side I usually make over 2BB per 100 hands on average. I have winning sessions about 85% of the time. I have been learning for a year and this November I finally, hopefully, plugged up my holes and my game has greatly improved. I was a break even player. Now I am a winning player. I almost never lose live games. Since variance is greater in live games per sessions I only lose with poor cards. Like in 6 hours of 210 hands I only play 12 hands and win 4 pots. Thats a bad night. I play usually 10/20. I have lost at most $250 and have won ranging from $250 to $850 in one night.

WINNING PT STATS under the new me: 11,264 3/6 hands 2.6 BB per 100 hands, VOL put in pot 14.02%, See flop 18.95%, win when see flop 32.72%, aggression factor 2.06, win at showdown 58.96%

LOSING PT STATS under the OLD me: 40,687 3/6 hands 0.03 BB per 100 hands, VOL put in pot 16.93%, See flop 23.03%, win when see flop 29.29%, aggression factor 1.26, win at showdown 56.07%

You can tell a difference. I think tighter play lowers your variance. You win more with aggression and save more by tight play. I am far from perfect thought and have a lot more to learn. So restudy your game.

[bisonbison]

When I first started playing party 3/6, i was freaked by the variance. Now, I take it in stride. It's the nature of the beast.