5/10 with 200 BB stacks, 2 pair becomes a pure bluff

Jonny · #1 07-01-2005, 05:12 PM

Villain in this hand is LAG preflop, and hasn't really been out of line postflop so far. I know he will autobet the flop here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

MP ($250)
CO ($2160)
Button ($828.94)
Hero ($2075.03)
BB ($975)
UTG ($4784.64)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $5.
2 folds, CO raises to $40, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls $35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($90) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $70, Hero raises to $200, CO calls $130.

Dangerous board, he will autobet, I think this street is standard. I want to take it down now.

Turn: ($490) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $350, CO calls $350.

Plan here is to try and get him to fold overpair, my plan is to check/fold if called here.

River: ($1190) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Change of plans. I have him on overpair with a heart after his turn call. I figured I was representing either a flush or Jacks up on the turn. No way he can call here. Or can he?

Hero bets $800

ggbman · #2 07-01-2005, 05:30 PM

Depends if the overpair is QQ or not.

Jonny · #3 07-01-2005, 05:33 PM

good point, but don't you think he would still have a hard time calling that river bet considering that the board is 3 flushing plus TP just paired.

mgsimpleton · #4 07-01-2005, 06:02 PM

hey jonny

do you have a straight, a flush, or a full house? with the flop raise followed by 2/3 - 3/4 pot size bets on turn and river you seem confused about that. i think your hand changed from a straight to a flush to a boat. that said, if i'm villain and i got QQ i instacall.

mgsimpleton · #5 07-01-2005, 06:03 PM

hey jonny

do you have a straight, a flush, or a full house? with the flop raise followed by 2/3 - 3/4 pot size bets on turn and river you seem confused about that. i think your hand changed from a straight to a flush to a boat. that said, if i'm villain and i got QQ i instacall. oh yeah and if i have a boat, i push.

jbrock · #6 07-01-2005, 06:32 PM

Fslexduck has a very good point. Your action on the flop indicate a strong hand such as a set, made str8, str8/flush draw, two pair, etc.

Now the turn comes and this is the worst card for any hand BUT the flush draw. If you (Hero) had a set, this is the one card that would scare the daylights out of you since the flush and the str8 draws both got there. You come out betting strong indicating either str8 or flush.

Now on the river the board pairs. This is bad news for the str8 or the flush. Still you come out full steam ahead. Thus the turn and the river bets seem inconsistent -- what hand could you have that would be happy with both of these cards?

If you had a str8 or flush on the river, (and I was villain), I would expect a blocking bet. As it plays out, this seems a little like strong=weak.

Jonny · #7 07-01-2005, 07:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hey jonny

do you have a straight, a flush, or a full house? with the flop raise followed by 2/3 - 3/4 pot size bets on turn and river you seem confused about that. i think your hand changed from a straight to a flush to a boat. that said, if i'm villain and i got QQ i instacall.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your plan once the turn hits?

You do make some good points about my hand seemingly changing. Basically my reasoning was this: I put him on AA or KK by this point, and that would be a VERY hard bet to call with those hands. The board is just too coordinated too call that I think.

Also, what is your plan for when a 9 or 10 hits on the turn? I would probably go 3/4 pot.

It seemed like I could have been representing a hand like J9 or JT, and filled on the river. This seems resonable, no? Villian knows I probably put him on overpair here.

Any other comments welcome.

fyi, I almost always go 3/4 pot, whether it be with a draw, TP, nuts, or whatever, unless there are extraordianry circumstances. He probably knows that.

mgsimpleton · #8 07-01-2005, 11:51 PM

the only reason it hink it's questionable that you're representing two pair is that you do have to be a LITTLE worried when the flush draw/straight hits if you have 2 pair... he could have AhKh or QQ even with your small range so i doubt you'd play it like that.

furthermore, you said yourself he is LAG preflop!! and he knows you know that!! so why the small hand range? i think that's very narrow of you - he could easily be raising a JT or a KQ or something like that from the CO. and he knows you know that or even if you put him on a narrow range he must think you give him credit for a wider range given how laggy he's been preflop. that being said, if you had a set or 2 pair the turn ought to scare the hell out of you and you'd probably not bet it as hard as you did and if it didn't scare the hell out of you, maybe it's because you hit your flush.

looking back at the line, i think a flush makes the most sense (the only hand that makes sense) with this line though i do think you might bet slightly less on the river with a flush to leave yourself room to get away if he pushes the river.

the thing is, the reason we raise our flush draws is to disguise them. which means when we don't have them, it's harder to bluff with them.

anyway basically all in all i just don't think you've really sold me on a hand if i'm villain. instacall was a bit rash, it's hard to call w/ AA or KK here but i wouldn't put it past him. furthermore i don't know why your range for him is so small.

Popinjay · #9 07-02-2005, 02:21 AM

Overbet all-in. If he is decent there is no way he can call you unless he has a straight flush.