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#1
12-05-2005, 12:10 PM
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2nd barrel?
ultimatebet $40+4.
i don't remember any reads on villain, but if he's been paying attention i have been pretty quiet / card-dead for a long stretch, but then in last couple orbits have been stealing liberally from LP without being called. 75/150, i (3835) open for 375 in utg+2 holding red 77. MP2 (8315) and MP3 (4375) both call. flop (3 players, t1350): Qc 9c 3h i bet 950, MP2 calls, MP3 folds. turn (2 players, t3250): Qc 9c 3h As i have 2510 left. my action? 
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#2
12-05-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
check and fold to a bet. lot of hands you are behind here and based on your actions in the last couple of orbits, villain may decide to look you up with a non A, non Q hand such as 99 or TT. There is always the possibility villain has an A or a Q. Q may fold to a bet, fearing the A, but you now would have to fire the rest of your stack on a huge bluff to find this out.
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#3
12-05-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
i think if he has a Q he's going to call you. If he doesnt have a Q, a semi-likely hand would be the club flush draw.. which a lot of the time is going to have an Ace and have you beat.
You could probably get a 9 to fold. but how often is he going to have a 9? And if you're called by a bare flush draw it's fine, but as i said a lot of the flush draws just caught an ace on you. I'm too lazy to do the math on all the possible hands he could have and how likely he'd have to be to have a 9. but i think this is check fold now.
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#4
12-05-2005, 12:29 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
I'm with Exit on this one. There are three overs and two draws on the board. I don't have the sense that you're going to get him to fold, and right now that's your only shot at taking down the pot. Fit me for a skirt (plaid, please) and check fold.
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#5
12-05-2005, 12:36 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
There are three overs and two draws on the board. [/ QUOTE ] i'm not saying a push is right, but this is not a good argument why it's not. there could be 4 overs - if i push, my hand is no better or worse than 22. this is obviously not a push for value. and the fact that there are draws is good. it means that there are some extra hands out there - JT, 7c8c JcKc, etc that are likely to call the flop bet (remember he called with one guy to act on the flop on a draw heavy board) but then can't call the turn. admittedly, i could also check and hope that villain checks his draw behind on the turn, misses his draw, and doesn't bluff the river. so the presence of draws is not a clear signal to push. also some of his draws are A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which i obviously don't want to push into.
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#6
12-05-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
Yah, I wasn't clear. My point was that the villain probably has paired one of the overs (maybe he's on KJ, but that seems like wishful thinking), and has a draw as well.
In short, I think you are behind and drawing to two outs, only one of which is clean, and your FE is minimal. Once called you are in deep trouble.
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#7
12-05-2005, 01:02 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
villain may decide to look you up with a non A, non Q hand such as 99 or TT. [/ QUOTE ] too late to edit. missed the 9 on the flop. should read 88 or TT. obviously a 99 will be doing more than looking you up.
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#8
12-05-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] villain may decide to look you up with a non A, non Q hand such as 99 or TT. [/ QUOTE ] too late to edit. missed the 9 on the flop. should read 88 or TT. obviously a 99 will be doing more than looking you up. [/ QUOTE ] i'd like to believe that i would've noticed somebody fishy enough to call off his stack with 88 here. or anything less than a decent Q.
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