Advantage Players, Rock 'n Rollers and Intelligent Design

[Cyrus]

People want to see patterns where patterns do not exist.

Gamblers should be quite familiar with the notion of patterns (eg "numbers that are due") in roulette, keno, etc.

Whereas this ability to see patterns in things has helped Man in his progress in the world (sciences, etc), it carries with it the deeply ingrained desire to see patterns in mostly everything. (For more on this, see also Ed Miller et al, "Small Stakes Hold 'Em" pp.39-40.)

Hence the notion of patterns in the creation of our cosmos -- and a pattern invites the notion of purpose. Which is a lot more comforting than the idea of a purposeless, random existence!

We come to Intelligent Design.

IMO, there is a basic fault in the position of intelligent supporters of ID (eg Freeman Dyson in Disturbing the Universe) : They confuse complexity with intelligence and they mistake extreme statistical improbability for impossibility.

To wit, and this is my thesis: Mick Jagger and Keith Richards are two very young boys who live in the same town and one day meet on the train from Dartford to Victoria. (This is based on a true story.) Richards notices Jagger carrying some blues records and strikes up a conversation. Out of this meeting, the idea of forming a band started and begat the Rolling Stones, which were a huge musical influence all over the world.

Suppose you had the ability to track back the circumstances in the life of those two young boys for the previous two years (a very small amount of time, surely), i.e. before they met on the train. You'd see all kinds of "twists and turns" in the road to that meeting on the train, where each one, if taken, would have caused the meeting NOT to happen or NOT to turn out the way it did: Jagger's parents relocating earlier somewhere else, Richards getting a job that did not involve riding that train, Jagger carrying a bunch of Perry Como records ordered by his dad, the two meeting when older and with different outlooks in life, either one falling sick, etc etc etc.

Looking back on the myriads upon myriads of such factors that "came just right" for Jagger & Richards to meet, one can take two completely different views:

(A) The Jacques Monod outlook: The meeting was purely a chance meeting, as all unplanned events in life are. Because of the millions of events taking place constantly in human life, every event is dependent on various other events, occuring previously or concurrently.

or

(B) The Freeman Dyson outlook: It's possible that the gods of music wanted Jagger and Richards together.

[Max Raker]

Point of accuracy: Mick and Keith actually knew each other from grade school but hadn't seen each other in years till they met on the train. They decided to form a band because they had the same taste in music, Mick was carrying a bunch of blues records.

Not that it changes your point, I dont see anyway to argue for the God willed the Rolling Stones/Intelligent design position.

[Slinky]

Very good post, makes me wish I was the author.

[kpux]

We could look at any event and establish how fantastic the odds are that it came to be. For instance, I ate a quesadilla at Anna's Taqueria today. What are the chances? Well, I had to be born, move to the east coast, go to school in Boston, live somewhat close to Anna's, etc, etc...

Calling one outcome more amazing than any other is arbitrary. The odds are of anything being exactly the way there are now, were at one point enormous.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

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(B) The Freeman Dyson outlook: It's possible that the gods of music wanted Jagger and Richards together.

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this is clearly not the case.