More Math Shortcuts (Inducing a bluff)

[schwza]

i like it. here's an example:

villain has 2k left, pot is 3k, villain has 4 outs.

pot is 1.5 as big as stack. add 1 to 2.5. 4 outs = 8%, so the answer is 20%. seems reasonable.

my only question is why you multiply by 2 for 0-4 outs and 2.5 for 5+ outs. seems like you should be multiplying by 100/46=2.17 (46 cards left in deck) regardless, and the fudge factor of calling that 2 is always better (and simpler) than 2.5. am i missing something?

[A_PLUS]

When I solved the equation for the % of time he needs to fold. I got the term [equity / 1-equity], at low number of outs, this is close enough to just straight equity, but it diverges as their outs increase, 2.5 seems to fit well enough until we get over 10-11 or so, which really doesnt come up too often