Card Player Article: The End Is Coming

[bearly]

you make such great reads.....i'm a noob who has played poker for 45 years....10 in card rooms making a (very modest) living. have an advanced education that allows me to understand the things of which you speak. (another great read---i don't even know these things exist!!!!). point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward.........or, we can all regard what you say for what it is: just internet chatter on some forum. h

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
you make such great reads.....i'm a noob who has played poker for 45 years....10 in card rooms making a (very modest) living. have an advanced education that allows me to understand the things of which you speak. (another great read---i don't even know these things exist!!!!). point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward.........or, we can all regard what you say for what it is: just internet chatter on some forum. h

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you don't make near 100k a year? Is that a good read? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Rode_Dog]

I don't know if the end is coming or not, but I plan to hone my skills and make some cash while I can.

I've been playing since May and have had to kick and scratch for the $1k I earned for the entire time. I'm playing $25/$50NL and $10STTs. What are you doing to have made ~$15k in the time I made $1k? I don't doubt your claim, I just want to know what you do differently.

Larger stakes? Higher RIO and/or BB/hr?

[paperboyNC]

Most of my friends that play online poker aren't at all concerned with long term winning. If they make $2000 in a day, the last thing they want to do is cashout. They want to leave more money there to gamble with.

Instead of coming up with strategies to make money, they instead figure out how to "make the money last longer" so that they only have to deposit twice a week instead of twice a day.

Someone just told me today that he plays the mini-step tournaments on party because you get so many retries. For $6 he gets to play 6 tournaments and even if he loses, he is only losing about $6 every 2-3 hours. When he tried $10/$20 he was losing about $300/hr.

paperboyNC

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward

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Adding up every major site, when deals are included, the PS 500K/700K, the Party $1M, Party 500K and a number of other big MTT's all pay out six figures or close to that to at least a dozen people a week.

Forget the 30/60 and above limit games, the 2K NL, 5K HU SNG's (where a number of people have big edges), and people 8 tabling the 215's...just the online MTT winners alone add up to a thousand.

That's not quite what you meant, maybe, but at any given big event, 2-3 guys you see at the final table are familiar names that consistently make it deep. I can name a few dozen regulars just at Party I know make that much.

As for lower stakes...I'm sorry, but a robot *can* make money at Party 11's-22's playing the same way. I posted a strategy I made up in two hours on a whim that basically proves the concept. That doesn't get you to 100K, but it's not by any means 'hard' to beat that game or even to make a living at it. Playing push/fold poker makes money and that's 100% tenth grade math...add in playing the bubble halfway decent and you're at your magic 20% ROI. Is it seriously that difficult for most people to do that well?

[Gramps]

The games should get tougher at some point, but there are some factors working in favor of the current $$/hr. figures staying at least near where they are now for quite a while (knock on wood).

(a) Americans love to gamble, are stupid about it, and millions have been introduced to hold 'em, now know it's rules and how to play (which was a big barrier before).
-The first live $3/6 game I ever played (about a month into my poker playing career) I was shocked at how awful everyone's starting hand requriements were - for chrissakes read a friggin book for 5 minutes, follow the guidelines roughly - it's not friggin hard for even a dumbass to do. The fact that no one was even close to correct made a pretty strong impression, and made me realize just how much people want to just gamble.

(b) There are millions of people in the US, and millions of people across the globe who really like to gamble, but have not been introduced yet to internet poker (haven't played it online yet). The rate of new players will definitely fall off at some point, but there's still a huge pool to draw from.

(c) While it sounds incredible to non-poker players, a lot of top internet players get to where they're making > $100/hour and then get bored and for the most part quit (or cut way back on their hours). Thus, it's not a system where the top gets logjammed with top earners putting in 40+ hour weeks. Of the people that get to the top of the "ponzi scheme," at lot step aside (partially or fully) - a very odd and unique dynamic indeed.

(d) Antigua won their WTO appeal, so it looks like the Bush Admin. won't we restricting funding of internet sites/advertising.

But regardless of your beliefs of what will happen the next 5-10 years, max your SEP IRA and save a sh-tload of money on the side and it won't be so bad if your hourly gets cut in half or even worse.

[FlyWf]

Consistent $100K/yr. $50/hr for 2000 hours, $100 hr for 1000, and so on. I believe Sklansky has a bit about this somewhere. There are a lot of gamblers who make $100K in any given year, but there are very very few who make it twice.

Adanthar, using that exact same sort of logic I can say that lots of people make $20K a year playing slots. I mean, look at all those jackpots! That's not even counting people who go on good non-jackpot runs. Clearly, the slots craze can't last forever.

Also, I'm calling you out on your strategy proving the concept. That isn't what proving means. Do you have any evidence that someone following your system can beat the $11s for 20%? Not guessing, not informed speculation, I want hundreds of 20% ROI SNGs.
Not to say a 20% ROI at the $11s is difficult to acheive, it really isn't. That is something most people could do with a little study and a little experience. I doubt very many people are making a living off the $11s, most simply because anyone who is good enough to beat the $11s is going to try a higher level.

[vinyard]

What kinds of numbers are you talking? Its against Party's Terms and Conditions to use a bot but I have no doubt a player using that strategy coupled with a refined bubble strategy can beat the 11s at 20%.

If the stakes are big enough, there were a mutually agreeable guineau pig and a big enough sized wager (I would want to pay the player regardless) I would be interesting to betting on adanthar's guide being successful.

I beat the 11s at greater than 20% to start over my first 400 or so while playing the bubble weak tight.

[bearly]

i *might* make 1k this year. h

[bearly]

yes, the 1040's of your 'students' should settle the matter. h