Seeing monsters or boxing clever?

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
After looking at the hand closely it is obviously not a raise but in the heat of the moment I probably raise 9 out of 10 times. Still have some way to go...

[JoshuaD]

That's actually rough.

My first instinct was "there's exactly one hand beating you, push it."

Then I realized he really doesn't have anything else here. He's capping the turn with just an A, and AA lines up perfectly with him LRR'ing.

AK is a possibility, but it doesn't seem likely enough to me to warrant a river raise.

I think a call is good here. Be careful not to over-apply this though, this is a really particular situation.


edit: TT just pointed out that 33 is a possibility too. I don't see people LRR with low PP's too often, but it's another possible holding for sure.

[cockandbull]

Four handed, i like to cap the river as well. this seems way like a really silly way to play AA, esp if you plan on llr. I think he may well have something like AK, AQ, 33 etc.

[cartman]

He has AA. You "know" it, I "know" it, we all "know" it. But by my estimate there are about 15 BB in the pot after he bets the river. The question is whether "know" means more than 93.75% certain. It is a fact that people have an extremely difficult time accurately gauging low probability events. 1 in 10 feels like never just like 1 in 20, 1 in 30, or 1 in 50 does. I think Small Stakes Hold em says something along the lines that we can rarely be over 90% sure of anything in this game. I would throw up as soon as I saw the Ace on the river then call the bet. I think raising is out of question.

Cartman

[Nietzsche]

You made one giant mistake: Not choosing a bad beat table for this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I don't see any mistake in the way the hand was played though. I don't see him playing AK this way on the turn so I don't think you have a raise here. Fold is out of the question IMO.