Overpair JJ facing aggression

[strunks]

Villain is 41/16/1.7 after 170 hands

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (8 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($35.35)
SB (Villain) ($69.30)
BB ($27.15)
UTG ($27.80)
Hero ($104.20)
MP1 ($38.10)
MP2 ($11.10)
CO ($50.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB (Villain) calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($5.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to $38</font>, BB folds, Hero ???

Final Pot: $56

What can he do this with? My first thought was to fold...

[Allinlife]

give no read this is a routine fold.

[UOPokerPlayer]

Looks like a fold to me. You're behind aa flush draw that has two overs to you jj. A call on the flop makes this almost impossible to get away from later. You also should wory about qq-aa, though these are likely to reraise pf.

[GoCubsGo]

Remember, LAG's can catch hands, too. 44 55 and TT are all very likely. And if not, he's still beating you with queens kings and aces. Easy fold.

[ajmargarine]

Agree with the others. Lay it down and move on. Bad break. You may have AA for all he knows, and he is still doing this with a bet and raise from the PFR out there. Easy fold.

Easy fold unless you've seen him go to the felt with weak hands like TPNK/2nd/3rd pair/draw. Then consider calling. No read, fold.

[MTBlue]

I disagree. I think you should call. There are plenty of oppponents and levels where a fold is appropriate but this guy is a complete lag in the 50 UB NL and unless this game has tightened up considerably over the last 6 months this is an easy call. You should see overplayed underpair/ TP random kicker more than enough to compensate you when you are against a set/overpair. Lags at this limit are almost always dumb and his hand range is fairly broad. If he stacked you that sucks, but given the information provided us you should be well ahead of his hand range.

[PaultheS]

[ QUOTE ]
this guy is a complete lag

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop sure, but that doesn't mean he'll go crazy with nothing postflop. It all depends on how you've seen him play after the flop... If he's one of those bet, re-raise with nothing types, then sure, call. If he's not, or if you haven't seen anything, then standard fold.

Be sure to not be one of those guys who will call any bet with an overpair.

[MTBlue]

When I played low stakes holdem and I was one of those guys and I made money b/c people make more dumb mistakes at these limits then always calling with overpairs. Sure you get stacked occasionally but unless this guy is a huge vagina post flop you are well ahead of his hand range (i.e. suited/ connecting/ big/ pairs cards). Assuming AA and KK reraise preflop (likely give his numbers) That leaves 6 combinations of QQ, 9 combinations of sets, 9 combinations of 45 two pair and probably T5s and T4s (4 combinations). 28 ways you are beat. Now look at the hands you beat (99-22 excluding 55 and 44) for 36 combinations and a pair of tens (106s 107o- At0) 73 combinations. He only has to be donking some of these hands 1/4 of the time to make this call profitable(107 combinations to 28 combinations). This analysis leaves out all of the coinflip hands and doesn't look at win percentages versus the hand ranges but you get the idea. It's just too likely he is messing up one of the gazillion hands he is playing then he woke up with a monster.